Good morning, and welcome to 2020! Light rain has fallen across the region overnight, and with lows only in the mid-50s to lower-60s across the region this morning fog has developed near and along the coast. This should burn off later this morning. Overall, our forecast remains the same, with additional light-to-moderate rain possible today, and then clearing skies for a beautiful weekend.

Thursday

Rains have temporarily stalled this morning, but we expect an additional round of showers this afternoon into the early evening as an upper-level system moves across the area. Accumulations for today will likely be below one-half inch of rain. Rain or not, this will be a gray day, with highs in the mid-60s. Rains should end for most of us Thursday night.

Friday

Lows Friday morning will only bottom out in the mid-50s, and with light winds this should again provide favorable conditions for the development of fog. This soupy weather should end by around midday as a cool front pushes through Houston from west-to-east, bringing somewhat drier air and helping to clear out our skies. Highs Friday should be in the mid-60s, with overnight lows falling into the 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

As mentioned, this weekend will be a winner. Whether your plans include tailgating for the Houston Texans game or yard work or whatever, we’re going to enjoy sunny skies with highs in the mid-60s on Saturday, and sunshine and highs of around 70 on Sunday. Depending on your distance from the coast, lows will either be in the 40s or 50s.

Next week

Just as things begin to warm up on Sunday another moderate cool front will push into the region, likely around Monday morning-ish. This should help keep high temperatures in the 60s through Wednesday of next week, with overnight lows generally in the 40s. Oh, and there will be plenty of sunshine. Our next best chance of rainfall after today probably will not come until next Thursday or Friday—so yeah prepare for some very fine weather indeed.

Good morning—we hope everyone is preparing for a fun and safe celebration tonight. Mother Nature will be ready to do its part, bringing a dry and temperate evening to the festivities. Space City Weather will return to normal business on Thursday, so in the meantime please accept our wishes for a Happy New Year!

Tuesday

The last day of 2019 should be fine, with partly to mostly sunny skies through most of the daytime hours. We can probably expect a high temperature of about 60 degrees with very light winds. Some clouds will move in during the afternoon and evening hours, and temperatures during the run-up to midnight should be in the low 50s. Winds will remain light.

New Year’s Day

Whereas we once expected New Year’s Day to be a soggy affair, the better rain chances have now slipped into Wednesday night and Thursday. Therefore, we expect most of the daytime hours of New Year’s Day to be gray, but without too much, if any precipitation. Highs will reach about 60 degrees, or a little above, for most of the region. Rain chances increase during the evening and overnight hours as low pressure moves up the coast.

Thursday

Forecast models have been waffling on how best to handle the precipitation resulting from the low as it moves up the coast, through Houston, and into Louisiana. Right now the stronger thunderstorms and greatest amount of rainfall should remain off the Texas coast, and into Louisiana. But the Houston area could still see 0.5 to 2.0 inches of rain from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening, with even a bit more along the coast. As the low pressure system moves off to the east, a cold front will slide in behind it, bringing an end to rain chances by Thursday afternoon or evening.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

After a gray, and then wet start to 2020, the region should see several days of sunshine and pleasant weather with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Enjoy!

Sunday’s rainfall almost certainly marked the last significant precipitation of 2019 for the greater Houston area. The region experienced some extreme rainfall, punctuated by Tropical Storm Imelda in September. But overall, Houston came in near normal with annual rainfall—receiving a total of 51.93 inches at Bush Intercontinental Airport (the region averages just north of 48 inches per year). The wettest year on record came in 2017, driven by Hurricane Harvey, with 79.69 inches. Here’s the climate graphic, with Houston’s rainfall totals on the bottom:

The story is considerably more interesting to the east of Houston, in Beaumont, which bore the brunt of Imelda. That region, based upon its official monitoring station at Jack Brooks Regional Airport, has recorded 85.46 inches of rain in 2019. But this ranks only third in annual totals, behind 2017 (104.30 inches) and 2018 (88.75 inches), based on 117 years of data.

It seems pretty staggering that Beaumont’s three wettest years all occurred within the last years. It is difficult not to believe some kind of climate signal must exist in this data, but I will leave that analysis to actual scientists. Needless to say, this has been the wettest three-year period in the recorded history of Beaumont. Here’s hoping to more normal weather in the years ahead.

Now, on to the forecast.

Monday

Not much to say about today’s weather, which will be splendid in the wake of Sunday’s cool front. Look for sunny skies, with highs in the low 60s, and light northwesterly winds. Overnight lows will get down into the low 40s in the city of Houston—warmer to the north, cooler along the coast.

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Good morning. As we begin to close out 2019, it will continue to feel a bit springlike before a Sunday cold front cools us back off a bit.

Today

Dense fog is the main forecast issue, and it will continue to be the biggest problem today and probably tomorrow. Fog is almost everywhere this morning, and it will be stubborn and slow to clear from inland areas back to the coast.

Some coastal or bay-adjacent locations and some other places, mainly south and east of Houston may hold on to fog well into this afternoon. Outside of the fog, it will gradually turn partly cloudy and quite mild. We hit 76° yesterday, and we will probably come close to that again today.

Saturday & Saturday night

Tomorrow should begin similarly to today with widespread fog, especially closer to the bays and coast. Again, that could linger into afternoon. As the day goes on, look for shower chances to slowly increase, mainly north and west of Houston. We’ll start in the 60s Saturday and by afternoon, look for highs perhaps near 80° in Houston. The cold front will push through the Houston area from northwest to southeast between Midnight and 5 AM or so Sunday. During that time, almost everyone should see at least some rain and thunderstorms.

We don’t anticipate too much rain when all is said and done, but a quarter-inch to half-inch or so on average, with lower amounts south and west of Houston and higher amounts north and east being the most likely outcome. Any fog risks will end behind the front as well. Some storms, especially north and east of Houston could be a bit strong overnight.

Saturday will warm up from the 60s in the morning into the 70s during the afternoon. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop into the 50s by Sunday morning.

Sunday & Monday

Some lingering showers are possible Sunday morning. By afternoon, any remaining clouds should rapidly dissipate, and we are going to be left with delightful weather for both the second half of Sunday and Monday. Look for sunshine and high temperatures in the 60s both afternoons. Morning lows will be in the 40s for most folks on Monday morning, though outlying areas could sneak into the upper-30s.

New Year’s Eve & Day

Yesterday, it appeared that a storm system would begin to approach on Tuesday, bringing a slight chance of showers for New Year’s Eve. That has slowed down today, pushing any rain chances to Wednesday. The image below shows the last 6 runs of the European model’s forecast of rainfall from 6 PM to Midnight on New Year’s Eve

What you’re seeing is that until the most recent run, the model indicated shower chances. The latest version holds the rain back for another 12 to 18 hours. What does this mean? It means check back with us on Monday while this system’s timing gets sorted out over the weekend. We don’t trust this model explicitly and would lean toward increasing rain chances after the calendar flips to 2020, with rain becoming most likely during the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday. Either way, our chances of a widespread, meaningful rain and some thunderstorms continue looking higher as we move into the new year.

Daytime highs should be in the 60s on both days. For New Year’s Eve celebrations, look for temperatures dropping into the upper-40s. We will update this forecast for you on Monday for sure.