Two weeks into the new year, Houston’s average temperature of 58.7 degrees is nearly 6 degrees above normal. Just one day has recorded a below-normal temperature. This trend will continue until the weekend, but the last 10 days of the month look pretty cold, when Houston will fall back into a more winter-like pattern. There’s even a small—probably only about 10 percent—chance of snow.

Wednesday

The dense fog is back, and it probably will require until mid-morning to burn off completely in some areas. It’s also ridiculously warm, with lows only falling to about 70 degrees this morning, putting us at risk of setting records for high-minimum temperature. The good news is that we’re unlikely to see rain today, and like on Tuesday afternoon there may even be a few breaks in the clouds. I think we could all do with a bit of sunshine? High temperatures this afternoon will get up to near 80 degrees, although the final mark will depend upon how much sun we actually get. Lows Wednesday night will once again only fall into the mid- to upper-60s with more fog.

Thursday and Friday

Unless you live north of about Highway 105, these days will probably be about the same, with mostly cloudy skies, a chance of light rain, and highs in the low- to mid-70s. Sometime on Thursday evening, a weak front will approach the northern reaches of the Houston metro area before washing out. For northern areas, this will bring a brief respite of slightly cooler and drier weather.

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Our blah weather will continue for several more days before a front brings a reprieve next weekend. Expect foggy mornings, cloudy days, and warm nights to persist through Saturday before a merciful front works its way into Houston.

Tuesday

It is quite foggy this morning, and the National Weather Service has issued a dense fog advisory until 10 a.m. due to low visibility. Please take care driving in these conditions. On Monday, showers were most pronounced near the coast, but today they will move farther inland. Beyond that, I have little confidence in rain totals today. Some models show almost no rain over Houston, while some bring up to 2 inches in places like Baytown. I don’t think we’ll see that, but it’s going to be a gray day with a healthy chance of showers. Highs are going up into the mid- to upper-70s, with low in the upper 60s. Like I said, blah.

Wednesday

The only good thing I can say about Wednesday, which will be gray and warm, is that rain chances are quite a bit lower—in the 10 percent chance. Fog remains likely, however, with very light winds and warm air moving over colder water.

Thursday

More of the same. Rain chances will edge back up a bit, but at this point we’re not expecting anything to write home about. A cold front will approach the area, but probably stall north of the area on Thursday. Right now, it appears the front will get to about the northern edge of Montgomery County before retreating quickly back north. Bottom line, there’s a chance of some briefly drier and cooler air to make it into northern parts of the region. For the rest of us, you guessed it: Highs in the upper 70s, clouds, fog, and warm nights.

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Temperatures are generally in the 40s or 50s this morning across Houston, but that’s probably the end of the cool weather until next weekend. A warm front will move onshore today, and will leave us with warm and muggy conditions for most of the rest of the week. Rainfall will never be too far away, but accumulations probably won’t be that significant, likely less than one inch.

Monday

Light showers along the coast should migrate inland along with the warm airmass moving in from the coast. After the rain moves through, we’ll be left with a mostly cloudy day, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-60s. With a thick cloud deck Houston is unlikely to see much of a change in overnight temperatures. Lows tonight will probably only fall 3 to 5 degrees from high temperatures on Monday.

Tuesday

With the warm, moist air the region will likely see the development of sea fog along the coast as warm air moves over the cooler near-shore waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay. Highs Tuesday will reach the mid-70s. More rain showers will be possible on Tuesday, although at this point they likely will be more scattered than any activity on Monday. Lows Tuesday night are unlikely to fall much below the upper 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be two more gray days, with highs in the upper 70s and warm nights. Rain chances will likely take a step back to the 20 to 30 percent range. The bigger question is whether a cold front makes it all the way down through Texas and into Houston on Thursday. The answer at this point seems to be very likely not, although if you live in Montgomery County or points north there’s a slightly better chance of seeing some cooler and drier air on Thursday and Friday.

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Good afternoon. Just wanted to jump in with an update on storms anticipated for tonight. We’re wary. We’re watching. But we’re not overly worried—and we don’t think you should be either.

This front and associated strong squall line have received a lot of media attention this week, and we’re not entirely sure why. It may be because there really has not been any significant weather to hit Houston for three months or so. But if anything, the model trend today is toward a slightly less severe threat for greater Houston. It’s definitely prudent to be weather-aware tonight. And I wouldn’t be out and about when the squall line hits. But we will face worse threats later this year so let’s temper expectations.

The primary threats tonight are damaging straight-line winds (we may see some gusts above 60mph), potentially a few tornadoes, and possibly some hail. Here’s the timing for the worst of the weather, which should last an hour or less for most locations.

11 pm CT

Midnight

1 am CT

Stay safe! Please know that if conditions come in worse than expected we will be here to update as needed. Other than that, do enjoy the beautiful weather this weekend after the front passes.