Good morning. A cold front is moving into the western part of Houston this morning, and should push through most of the city this afternoon. The two issues related to the front are rainfall today and tonight, and then very cold air moving in behind the front to end this week.

Wednesday

High temperatures today ahead of the front should reach about 70 degrees for most. This morning a very narrow wedge of cooler air at the surface will push into Houston, and this will filter through the region. For the most part, rain showers during the daytime hours appear likely to be fast moving, and relatively brief—right now we do not anticipate the very heavy, organized rain we saw Tuesday in locations such as Tomball and The Woodlands. However, since that rainfall was not well forecast I do not have particularly high confidence in rain forecasts for the next 24 hours.

Wednesday night

The rest of the front, meaning a much deeper mass of colder air from higher up in the atmosphere, will push through Houston tonight, and this will drive the potential for some heavier rain, most likely between about 10pm Wednesday and 6am Thursday, moving from inland areas toward the coast. Again, these showers shouldn’t last too long, but some areas may have the potential for 1-3 inches. (Most of Houston will likely see less than 1 inch of rain). Temperatures Wednesday night will get down to around 40 degrees for most locations.

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Houston’s low temperature last touched the 30s back on April 2nd, the last gasp of winter. After that, the region’s nighttime temperatures never got below the mid-40s again, and then summer came to town. Now, it appears as though much of Houston may briefly slip into the upper 30s at the end of this week, and daytime highs will feel more like mid-winter than fall.

Tuesday

Conditions today will be mostly cloudy, fairly muggy, with intermittent light rain. A cold front will get past the Interstate 35 corridor in central Texas, but stop well short of the Houston area. This means that we should have relatively mild weather today and tonight—if your plans involve a certain baseball team and much-hoped for revelry there is good news. It appears likely that any daytime or early evening showers should wane by 9 or 10pm tonight. Temperatures likely will not fall below 70 degrees Tuesday night.

Wednesday

It’s cold front day! Atmospheric dynamics over the central United States will essentially shove the front toward the coast on Wednesday. What time will it move through Houston? Great question. Our best guess is that it pushes through Houston during the late afternoon hours and off the coast shortly after sunset, but confidence in the exact timing is low. Basically, we can expect conditions to get fairly warm on Wednesday ahead of the front—upper 70s?—and quite cold and breezy in its wake.

The other story to follow will be rainfall, and most of this should come during a period from Wednesday after noon through early Thursday. I think much of the region will probably get 0.5 to 1.5 inches, but there could be some outliers that pick up as much as 3 inches. Still, we do not have a real high concern for even street flooding at this time. Whenever the front passes through, there will be the threat of strong winds and light hail. So if there is a Game 7 of the World Series, we may have some concerns about weather going into, or coming home from the game. Hopefully a win tonight obviates these concerns.

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I hope everyone enjoyed that incredible weekend, as our weather this week will involve a number of tricks to go along with a few treats. What we are increasingly confident of is that conditions will probably dry out before Thursday afternoon or evening, with the most likely scenario of cool, breezy, and dry weather for trick-or-treating. Warm costumes are recommended for the kids.

Monday

The onshore flow has kicked into gear, but today should still be a pretty nice one across the Houston area, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs holding to around 80 degrees. Increasing moisture levels will lead to a fairly cloudy night, and as a result low temperatures tonight will not fall much below 70 degrees for most of the metro area.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As the amount of moisture in the atmosphere rises, we’ll see a corresponding increase in rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. Rain chances on Tuesday will be fairly high, without about two-thirds of the area probably seeing light showers. If you’re heading to the Astros game Tuesday evening, however, we think any daytime rainfall will probably wane by or before game time. Post-game temperatures will be around 70 degrees.

The heavier rainfall will hold off until Wednesday—most likely during the afternoon or overnight hours. In terms of accumulation, we can probably expect between 0.5 to 1.5 inches for most areas through Thursday morning, although we cannot rule out greater accumulations. Highs both days will be around 80 degrees. Let’s hope the Astros wrap the series up Tuesday, because Wednesday evening could definitely a bit wet for any revelry.

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It will feel more like a winter day today than a mid-autumn one as we struggle to get out of the 50s! Dress appropriately. Read on for details, as well as the latest thinking for Halloween.

Today

The cold front is already through basically the entire Houston area as of early this morning. Temperatures are noticeably colder this morning.

Most places have dropped into the 50s, and if they haven’t they will soon.

The heaviest rainfall is exiting Houston as I write this post. Look for continued clouds and showers or light rain through the afternoon, along with a good bit of cloud cover. There is a slight chance we do clear out in the afternoon, setting up a nice back half of the day, but right now we would lean toward clouds. Additional rainfall totals should be rather light. We did see some impressive rains overnight.

Unfortunately, the areas west of Houston that needed the rain most saw the least with a half-inch or less in most spots. As you move south or east of downtown Houston, rain totals increased. The area around Santa Fe seems to be the jackpot with close to 4 inches falling.

Temperatures should hold in the 50s for much of the day, maybe inching back up close to 60 degrees, especially west of Houston. Winds will continue gusty at times, generally up to 20 to 25 mph inland and 30 to 35 mph along the coast or bays. Higher gusts are possible in a few spots.

Saturday

If there are still a few clouds Saturday morning, don’t be surprised, but I expect we will clear out rapidly and entirely by afternoon. Winds will gradually subside as well, and all in all Saturday should be a nice day. After a morning low near 50° or in the low-50s, we should warm to the middle or upper-60s.

Sunday

Another fine day is in store on Sunday. We will start off in the 50s (near 60 along the coast) and warm into the 70s on Sunday afternoon. Look for oodles of sunshine, really a sublime day.

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