We’re continuing to track the potential for heavy rainfall on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday morning as a strong front moves through the region. Unfortunately, the models remain highly consistent in forecasting a wet night, with the potential for widespread totals of 2 to 5 inches of rainfall, and some bullseyes of up to 6 to 8 inches. The atmosphere won’t be too favorable toward severe weather, so the primary threat is heavy rainfall and the potential for some light to moderate flooding.

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Wednesday

Conditions today will be a lot like those on Tuesday, which is to say a cold start, followed by a sunny warm up into the low 60s. However, a subtle wind shift from the northeast to the east later today will allow for a few clouds to develop later tonight, and should moderate low temperatures to around 50 degrees in Houston—colder up north, a bit warmer along the coast.

Thursday

Winds will shift to come from the southeast on Thursday, and this will represent the return of a moist, onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This will help ramp up moisture levels ahead of the front, but it won’t manifest in rainfall immediately. Instead, Thursday will be a mostly cloudy affair, with highs in the mid- to upper-60s, and those southeasterly winds.

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It’s a chilly morning across the region, with lows ranging from 35 degrees in Huntsville to around 50 along the coast. As high pressure dominates our weather, conditions will remain quiet until later this week, when a storm system will combine with ample Gulf of Mexico moisture to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. Some street flooding appears possible Friday night, but fortunately the system won’t linger as a strong front scours the region on Saturday morning.

Tuesday

Cool today, with a northerly flow. Despite sunny skies, highs probably will only get up to around 60 degrees. Nighttime temperatures will be similar to Monday night.

Wednesday

Northerly winds will shift to the east, but that won’t mean much during the daytime, as we can expect another sunny day with highs of around 60 degrees. The more easterly winds should help to moderate overnight temperatures, however, with lows by Thursday morning generally in the upper 40s and 50s.

Thursday

Winds continue their rotation, and will come out of the southeast on Thursday, and this should lead to a mostly cloudy day with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Rain chances are quite low, but not non-existent.

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Today’s forecast will look ahead to some winter-like temperatures this week, and the possibility of some heavy rainfall and potential flooding later this week as a storm system moves through the Southern United States. But before we get into December’s weather, here’s a quick look back at November, which for most of Houston was quite cold, and quite dry. Note that the Sugar Land and Pearland temperature rankings, while impressive, only reflect about 20 years of data.

Monday

Northerly winds are bringing colder and drier air into Houston this morning, and conditions will remain so as high pressure establishes itself over the region. This will lead to a sunny day, with highs in the mid-60s, with some winds gusting above 20 mph. Temperatures will drop pretty quickly as the Sun goes down, with upper 30s possible for areas north of Houston, and low- to mid-40s for the rest of the metro area.

Tuesday and Wednesday

More of the same. These will be classic, winter-like days for Houston, with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs of around 60 degrees, and lows ranging from the upper-30s for far inland areas to low 50s along the coast. A good time for sweaters and hot cocoa.

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It’s quite warm out there for late November, with lows in the upper 60s. This is nearly 20 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, and right now the “minimum” temperature of 69 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport this morning ties the record for “high minimum” temperature on Nov. 30 in Houston. A weak front, and then a stronger front, will soon bring an end to these warmer conditions, however.

Friday

Friday will be a lot like Thursday, which is to say mostly cloudy, with muggy conditions, and highs likely in the upper 70s. The region will also likely see some scattered showers today and this evening, but these should be nothing too serious. It will be another warm night, but a cool front should move through during the overnight hours, bringing some drier air with it. Can’t rule out some showers with the frontal passage, but at most I expect a broken line of storms to move through the area.

Saturday

A really nice day. In the wake of Friday night’s front, drier air will flow in from the west, and this will push humidity levels down during the daytime. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s, but some areas may briefly touch 80 degrees under mostly sunny afternoon skies. Temperatures will fall fairly quickly as the sun sinks toward the horizon, and overnight lows will be in the 50s for most of Houston, except the coast, which should be a little warmer.

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