Houston made an abrupt transition from “winter” to “spring” in the middle of February, and the second half of the month was abnormally warm. (Note: On the morning of Feb. 15, we published a blog entry titled, “And just like that, winter is pretty much over in Houston.” Just sayin’). Overall, the month of February ended up being 6 degrees (in Houston) to 8 degrees (Galveston) above normal.
Winter ended on Valentine’s Day. (NWS)
As we get deeper into the spring, we’re going to see fewer cold nights. This week a strong front will push overnight low temperatures back into the 40s for the first time since Feb. 13. If you like the colder weather, enjoy this, because we may only get one or two fronts this strong for the rest of the spring season—before we get into summer proper.
Thursday ended up being a beautiful day. It’s almost like we turned a page after February. With all the data from last month in, we can crunch some numbers now and tell you just how cloudy February ended up. Iowa State University’s Iowa Environmental Mesonet has a useful tool that takes every hourly observation and tells you what percentage had overcast conditions reported. Keep in mind that how hourly observations are taken has changed a bit over time, so there are likely inconsistencies from 1970s data to 2018 data. But since at least 1973, no February has been cloudier in Houston. Of all hourly observations last month, 81% had cloud cover reported.
Why, yes, February was a terribly cloudy month, which some of you loved and some of you hated.
The next closest February was 1989, when 65% of the month had cloud cover. What’s more interesting? February 2016 was the least cloudy February since at least 1973. So, of the last three Februaries, we’ve had both extremes recorded. Impressive.
Of the last three Februaries, we’ve experienced both the cloudiest since at least 1973 as well as the sunniest.
You can enlarge either image above by clicking on it. So, that was February. The responses I’ve seen from people have been impressively divided and partisan. Some of you absolutely loved that kind of February. Others were really struggling without sunshine. I fall about 80% of the way into the latter camp, but take what we can get before summer sets in, right?
Either way, we’ve turned the corner. Let’s run down the forecast.
Today & Saturday
We have the antithesis of February’s weather today. Expect ample sunshine and low humidity. We’ll generally top off in the lower or middle 70s this afternoon after a refreshing morning. “Perfect weather” is a very subjective definition, but I have to think today will come close to checking most of the boxes. Overnight lows tonight into Saturday morning could even be a couple degrees cooler than today. Expect some scattered 40s north and lower or middle 50s elsewhere (though milder at the beach).
Saturday looks fine for now. We’ll begin to notice clouds creeping in through the day as onshore flow kicks back in. If you live from about Sugar Land south and west, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few showers or sprinkles pop up in the afternoon tomorrow. But I don’t think it would be anything too problematic. High temperatures Saturday will reach for the lower 70s once again. Most Saturday outdoor plans should be fine.
After another humid night across the Houston region, a cold front is sweeping through the city just before sunrise. Only a very broken line of showers is accompanying the front, so most people probably won’t see much, if any rain with the front’s passage. This will set the stage for a few nice days.
Thursday and Friday
Skies should clear out today, leading to partly or mostly sunny skies in the wake to the cold front. Highs should still climb into the mid- to upper-70s, and it should be a really nice day. We can expect a cool night Thursday night, and very pleasant, mostly sunny conditions again on Friday. Friday night should see our coolest weather of the week, with lows dropping into the mid-40s for areas well inland on Saturday morning.
Low temperature forecast for Saturday morning. (Pivotal Weather)
Saturday
This should be our nicest weekend day in quite some time. We’ll still be partly under the influence of high pressure, which means there should be a fair amount of sunshine as temperatures climb to about 70 degrees. We’ll probably see some clouds move in later in the day, and some slight rain chances enter the forecast later on Saturday night, as moisture levels rise.
It feels like early June across the city of Houston this morning, with low temperatures only having fallen into the low 70s. Indeed, February has been quite a warm month after the cold start to 2018, and most areas are going to end up between 5 and 6 degrees above normal temperatures for the month. We will probably end up close to, if not among, the top 10 warmest Februaries in the city’s history. The map below shows the departure from normal temperature map for the last 30 days, through Monday.
Departure from normal temperatures map for the last 30 days. (HPRCC)
Wednesday
Highs will reach the low 80s under mostly cloudy skies. We’ll see some brisk southerly winds as warm, humid air continues to move into the area. There’s a slight chance of showers for the northern half of Houston today, but for the most part I think the rain will hold off until a front moves through Wednesday night. The front, with a broken line of showers and storms, should sweep through the area between midnight and sunrise on Thursday, perhaps bringing a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. As spring fronts go, this one should be fairly mild.
