On the Gulf tropical system, and a cold front next week

After a stormy Tuesday, the rains should be over for now, as high pressure builds over Houston and somewhat drier air works its way into the region. For us, the next two big events to watch for are a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, and a much-anticipated cold front next week. Let’s discuss.

Wednesday through Friday

Building high pressure should lead to mostly sunny skies—look for highs in the upper 80s—along with warm nights with lows around 70 degrees. Aside from the late-summer like feel to the weather, we should have no concerns.

Saturday and Sunday

For now, the weekend simply looks pretty hot, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs near 90 degrees. Lows should only fall to around 70 degrees. The good news is that after this weekend I’d say there’s only about a 50 percent chance of seeing another 90-degree day this year, so the end of summer really is nigh.

Saturday’s high temperatures could be one of the year’s last 90-degree days. (National Weather Service)

The caveat to this weekend’s forecast is the tropical system likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico, which could bring us some increased moisture and rain chances by Sunday—although for now I’d bet against that.

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Chance of heavy rain today, then drier for the second half of the week

As of about sunrise, Houston’s radar is fairly quiet, with just a few showers streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico. However, we expect that to change later this morning, with the potential for widespread showers, and some locally heavy rainfall. After this, we can expect drier weather through the weekend.

Tuesday

There are a few indicators of the easterly flow that’s been piling moisture into Houston during the last few days. The first one is that, if you’ve been anywhere near the coast or bays, you’ve seen water levels a couple of feet above normal. This is just the easterly winds piling water on top of high tide. The second factor is the increased humidity levels of the Gulf of flow. This increased moisture from the Gulf is likely to culminate later today in showers and thunderstorms. We are not too concerned about flooding, but much of the Houston area may well see about 1 inch of rain, give or take. Some isolated areas will almost certainly see more. If there are any concerns later today, rain wise, we’ll be on top of them for you.

Precipitation forecast for Tuesday. (NOAA WPC)

Wednesday

A transition day, as showers end Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Skies should clear out in the morning or early afternoon, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s.

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Scattered, heavy rain showers possible on Monday and Tuesday

Houston had an all-too-brief taste of drier air this weekend, but already humidity levels are rising, and we’re going to see a fairly warm week for early October. Some (perhaps significantly) cooler weather should finally arrive next week.

Monday

As moisture levels rise, we’ll see a chance for scattered showers—with some isolated, heavy rains possible later today, this evening, and during the overnight hours. Most of Houston may just see clouds, but after a sunny, dry weekend the difference in moisture levels will nonetheless be noticeable. Clouds should limit highs to the upper 80s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Moisture levels will spike on Tuesday, as an easterly flow brings in tropical moisture. Precipitable water levels will rise above 2.0 inches, and this should allow for fairly widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be pretty heavy, bringing some localized heavy rains. For the most part, I expect people to see 0.5 to 1.5 inch of rainfall, but some areas will see more than this. We are not too concerned about flooding at this time, but will be watching this closely.

Precipitable water values surge to about 200 percent of normal levels for east Texas on Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

Rain chances will continue from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but then should begin to ebb as moisture levels fall, and high pressure builds. Both days should see highs in the mid- to upper-80s.

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We recommend: Weather books for weather enthusiasts

In the wake of Harvey, it’s been interesting and fun to see so many people seeking out ways to learn more about weather, flooding, hurricanes, and more. Knowledge is power, and both Eric and I want to see our community more knowledgeable about weather risks. We will attempt to give you a few book suggestions here. This list isn’t comprehensive by any means. It’s just a listing of books we’ve read about weather that we think our readers may find interesting, and hopefully it’s a group of books some of you can learn something new from! All links point to Amazon for simplicity, but I’m sure you can find some of these on local shelves or order them through local bookshops.

“Isaac’s Storm,” by Erik Larson – No, we couldn’t make a weather book list in Southeast Texas without including this title. “Isaac’s Storm” tells the story of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane and Isaac Cline, the weather observer at the time, and what he was able to do (and not do) through the storm. You won’t get a full meteorology education here, but this is a must-read for anyone interested in Houston, Galveston, or hurricanes.

“Hurricane Watch,” by Jack Williams & Bob Sheets – Jack Williams is one of the best weather journalists out there, and Dr. Sheets is a former director of the National Hurricane Center. He is also one of my childhood meteorology “heroes” who inspired me to be a strong weather communicator. This book walks you through the history of hurricane observation and prediction, going way back in time and bringing you up through Hurricane Andrew in 1992. It includes a look at the history of the Hurricane Hunters, why we can’t control hurricanes, and closes with a look at the future (as written in the early 2000s). This is a great introduction to hurricanes, their prediction, and the history behind that.

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