Good morning. The cool front and its associated showers—which truly were hit and miss—have moved through the area during the overnight hours. This will set the stage for some slightly drier weather and sunny skies until Saturday night, when rain chances return to the area. This front isn’t packing too much oomph, but it is mid-May after all. And this may be the last real front of the season, so enjoy the nights and mornings.
Wednesday
Most of the storms associated with the frontal passage have moved offshore, but we could see a few lingering showers this morning. Otherwise, skies will eventually transition from mostly cloudy to perhaps partly sunny this afternoon as winds blow from the north. Gusts could reach about 20 mph. Highs will generally reach into the mid-70s today, with overnight lows falling into the low 60s across Houston.
Low temperature forecast for Wednesday night. (Weather Bell)
Thursday and Friday
These will be a pair of partly to mostly sunny days, with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Nights will be cool, rather than cold, but the moderately drier air will still feel pretty good. Even coastal areas will see some drier air, although its effects will be muted.
Saturday
The onshore flow should resume some time on Friday, and this will begin to produce a few clouds. I still expect Saturday to have some sunshine, as highs get into the low 80s. Some rain showers will be possible later in the afternoon or evening, but I suspect these will hold off until the overnight hours. Saturday night will be warmer with the southerly flow, likely only dropping to around 70 degrees.
Sunday
Better rain chances arrive on Sunday, as the atmosphere turns a bit more disturbed. Accumulations don’t look too great, with perhaps a few tenths of an inch of rain for most areas. Highs should range from the low- to mid-80s across Houston, with a bit of sunshine when it’s not raining.
Will these be Houston’s last nights in the 60s until September? Probably. (Weather Bell)
Next week
Overall, next week should yield warmish, cloudy weather, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 70s. I don’t have a great feel on when rainfall chances will be highest, but forecast models indicate the week could be fairly wet with a few inches of accumulation. Details, as one might expect, are fairly hazy at this point.
Storms have pulsed up overnight north of the Houston area, particularly in the Lake Livingston area, close to where a stationary front is located over Texas. This front will eventually slog its way down to Houston and off the coast, but in the meantime our region will see intermittent rainfall, some of which could be heavy. We do not have significant flooding concerns. Lovely late spring weather will move in later on Wednesday, after the front moves offshore.
Location of stationary front as of Tuesday morning. (National Weather Service)
Tuesday
It’s very warm this morning, with lows only getting down to about 80 degrees for some locations in Houston. As the front slowly moves south, I think we’ll see decent rain chances across the area north of Interstate 10, but showers will likely remain mostly scattered until tonight. This will leave us with a mostly cloudy day, therefore, and highs in the upper 80s. Winds out of the southeast may gust up to 25 mph.
Tuesday night and Wednesday
This is a difficult rainfall forecast, because I think some areas will see no rainfall over the next two days, while some isolated parts of the Houston metro area pick up 5 inches, or more. Most areas will probably see about 1 inch. As a general rule, I’d expect the potential for heavy rainfall to be greatest north of Interstate 10 through about midnight, and shift more toward the coast on Wednesday morning.
NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast for now through Wednesday night. (Weather Bell)
The potential for heavy rain should end during the afternoon hours on Wednesday, and any lingering showers should end by late afternoon. Daytime highs likely will climb only into the 70s, and lows will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday night. While not exactly cool, this (and Thursday night) may nonetheless be the coolest weather Houston sees until September, at least.
Thursday and Friday
Houston will see splendid weather to end the work week, with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, drier air, and partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows will drop to around 60 degrees on Thursday night, and into the mid-60s on Friday night.
Friday morning lows for Houston look rather pleasant. (Weather Bell)
Saturday, Sunday, and beyond
Saturday should be a pretty nice day, with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 80s. While I can’t entirely rule out some spotty showers, right now I think we’ll stay dry. A disturbance will bring a healthy chance of showers to the region on Sunday and Sunday night, but I’m not too confident about the details. Highs will return to the mid-80s, and I think we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds when it’s not raining. Much of next week looks fairly wet, with healthy rain chances most days. Again, details to come on that.
May has started out fairly warm for Houston. The city recorded its first 90-degree day May 3, and although the region recorded a few cooler nights, most days have seen highs in the upper 80s. This is the time of year when cool fronts start to become really scarce, and the heat and humidity of summer in Houston begin to assert themselves. However, I’m happy to report that the region will experience at least one more decent front this spring.
Monday
Skies are mostly cloudy this morning across much of the region as a cold front remains stalled out north of the Houston metro area. The front won’t move much today, so most of Houston will continue to see partly to mostly cloudy skies and warm temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the region, with slightly higher chances north of Interstate 10. But for the most part, a capping inversion should limit activity. Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid-70s for most.
Monday should be the hottest day of the week. (Weather Bell)
Tuesday
The front may slide a little closer to the Houston area on Tuesday, and this will trigger somewhat better rain chances. Most parts of Houston probably will see at least a sprinkle on Tuesday, with some areas getting perhaps a couple of tenths of an inch of rain. There is a slight chance for some heavier rainfall for areas north of Houston, such as College Station or Huntsville. Skies will otherwise be cloudy, with highs in the mid-80s. Overnight lows will depend upon the progression of the front, which will begin pushing toward the coast on Tuesday night.
Wednesday
The region will see widespread showers and some thunderstorms on Tuesday night and Wednesday as the front slogs its way through the region. I don’t feel overly confident in the rain accumulation forecast, but it seems likely that much of Houston and surrounding areas will see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with showers likely ending on Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will be around 80 degrees, and lows Wednesday night should drop into the lower 60s.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Wednesday night. (Weather Bell)
Thursday and Friday
The end of the week looks glorious, with drier air likely filtering in behind the front. Look for high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, sunny skies, and overnight lows in the 60s. This is very fine weather for mid-May.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend forecast is not yet locked in. I think we’ll continue to see partly to mostly sunny skies in the wake of the front, with highs in the low 80s on Saturday, and mid-80s on Sunday. Dewpoints will rise as the onshore flow resumes. We can’t entirely rule out rain showers, but overall chances look fairly low at this point.
We’ve had some stellar May weather to close out this week, and today will be no exception. But look for changes this weekend, leading to some unsettled weather next week.
Drought update
So, some good news! The rains of last weekend did a number on drought across Texas. About 20 percent of the state exited drought completely, with about 45 percent remaining there today.
Drought is still prevalent in Texas, but the rains of last weekend took a big bite out of it, especially in eastern Texas. (US Drought Monitor)
Locally, that change was even more stark. We went from about 45 percent of the region in drought last week to less than 10 percent now in drought.
Use the slider to see last week’s drought map (slide right) versus this week’s map (slight left) in the Houston National Weather Service coverage area. (US Drought Monitor)
Overall, last weekend’s rains did not completely end drought concerns, and there are still some localized pockets that didn’t get quite a lot of rain last weekend. But it did put a dent in the drought. The hope is that next week’s unsettled weather will do some more, although as of today it appears that the bulk of next week’s rain may fall in areas that are not in serious need of rain. More on that below.
Today
Look for another winner today with sunshine and some passing high clouds. High temperatures will top off in the mid-80s, with perhaps a couple upper-80s peppered in there too. Humidity remains fairly low, though it will subtly increase later in the day.
Saturday
Tomorrow should still be a fairly decent day. Any outdoor plans should be fine, though I wouldn’t exactly be shocked to see an isolated shower west of the city. We should have some fog in a few spots early, clearing to sun and clouds with morning lows in the 60s again warming into the mid-80s. Humidity will be noticeably higher tomorrow. A southerly breeze will also pick up a bit, so if you’re out on the Gulf or Galveston Bay, be ready for some 20-25 mph wind gusts building as the day goes on.
Mother’s Day
As noted in yesterday’s post, the Sunday forecast is a trickier one. However, while we can’t entirely rule out some more widespread, heavier showers, those seem more likely to stay comfortably north of the Houston area through late afternoon or evening, between Huntsville and Dallas. If you will be traveling to or from Dallas on Sunday, do keep that in mind, particularly in the afternoon or toward evening. But for the majority of our area: Clouds, some sun and just a slight shower chance. There may be some light rain, drizzle, or mist in the morning hours. It will end up warm to hot and humid, with morning lows in the 70s and highs in the mid to upper-80s, along with a steady southeast breeze. I think storm chances may increase a little bit on Sunday evening, but details are still a bit uncertain.
Monday through Wednesday
As we discussed yesterday as well, next week’s forecast is dependent on the orientation of a stalled out cold front near or north of us, as well as the timing of any disturbances rippling by overhead. We know that there will probably be at least scattered thunderstorms next week. We know it may not rain each day and certainly not everywhere each day, but we know that the chances are probably better than 50 percent at times.
The rainfall forecast from NWS next week looks fairly healthy, but there will likely be some areas that get less than advertised here and some that perhaps see a bit more, especially north of Houston. (Weather Bell)
While we could see some locally heavy rain in this type of weather pattern, the most likely areas to see that will be north of I-10, because of course. On average, I would expect about a quarter to half-inch of rain south of I-10 Monday through Wednesday, a half-inch to inch or so in the city, and 1 to 3 inches north of the city. But amounts may vary considerably, with some places merely seeing a tenth of an inch or so and others perhaps seeing as much as 4 or 5 inches. Serious flooding is not expected to be a concern.
Late next week
That stalled out front is likely to push offshore late next week, ending rain chances and ushering in offshore winds to allow humidity to drop again for a couple days. Expect lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s, but those mornings will hopefully feel nice. “Hopefully” is carrying a lot of weight in that sentence, but most reliable model data does support lower humidity and slightly cooler temperatures late next week.
Unless it appears that the weather will change significantly this weekend, look for Eric to be back in the saddle for our next post on Monday morning!
