Eric Berger

Good morning! Houston just experienced—in my opinion at least—the nicest weekend of 2021 so far. After all of that sunshine and cool, dry air we’ll see a warming trend and likely reach the low 80s this week before our next front works through the area next weekend. Rain chances will be low until then as well. Looking a bit further ahead, next week does look somewhat cooler.

Monday

Today will be another pleasant spring day, with highs in the low 70s and mostly sunny skies. Winds will begin to be noticeable out of the southeast, at 10 mph or so, and that will start to set the stage for warmer and more humid conditions later in the week. Low temperatures Monday night should be about 10 degrees warmer than Sunday night, but this should still be the coldest night until at least next Sunday.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The story for these two days will be that of building clouds and increasingly brisk southerly winds. We’ll still see some sunshine, as highs get into the mid-70s on Tuesday, but by Wednesday skies should be full-on cloudy. Winds will gust in the 20s on Tuesday, and perhaps in the mid-20s on Wednesday as the southerly flow amps up. Lows will not drop below the mid-60s.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week will bring warmer temperatures still, with highs in the low to possibly mid-80s and mostly cloudy skies. This will probably be the warmest and most humid weather we’ve seen so far in 2021. We can’t entirely rule out some light precipitation, but chances are quite low both days.

Saturday, Sunday, and next week

Our weather for this weekend remains something of a question mark as we’re just not sure about the timing of the region’s next cold front. Some models bring the front through on Saturday, and some on Sunday, so for now I’d split the difference and bet on a Saturday night passage. But being honest, our temperatures, rain chances, and humidity for the coming weekend are all going to depend on the front so overall confidence is fairly low. For now, let’s say cloudy, decent rain chances, and highs around 80 degrees on Saturday; and a bit cooler and sunny on Sunday

The models generally show cooler weather for next week, with highs perhaps dropping back to the 60s, and lows in the 40s and 50s. We’re not looking at anything like a freeze, I’m pretty sure, but that’s not unheard of in Houston, in March.

The overall story remains the same for Houston weather—mostly spring-like conditions, plenty of partly to mostly sunny days, and not too much hullabaloo. We’re now in the period where winter is pretty much in the rear view mirror, and summer is not yet right in front of us. So, in my opinion at least, this is a great time of year to live in Houston.

Thursday

Temperatures are starting out on the chilly side this morning, generally in the 40s across the region. With clear skies and light southeasterly winds we can expect a nice warmup today, with highs pushing to about 70 degrees, give or take. As the onshore flow becomes slightly more pronounced overnight, we can expect skies to turn mostly cloudy, and lows to be about 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

This will be a mostly gray day as a cool front associated with an upper-level low pressure system moves toward Houston. There will be a modest chance of very light rain throughout the day, but I don’t expect to see anything too organized in Houston. Highs will reach the low 70s for most areas, with the front arriving during the afternoon or evening hours. This will not be a knock-you-in-the-face front, so the colder and drier air will trickle in overnight. As a result, lows likely will only drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

As we’ve been saying for awhile, the weekend looks great in Houston! In the wake of the front, Saturday should yield mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-60s. Winds should be about 10 to 15 mph out of the north. Lows may drop into the 40s north of Interstate 10, but remain in the 50s closer to the coast. Sunday may be a degree or two warmer, with a few more clouds, as a more southerly flow returns. The night will still hold a chill, however.

Next week

By Monday we’ll begin a more distinct warming trend, and I’m not sure the region’s next front will arrive before next weekend or so. As a result I suspect we’ll see a string of days with highs in the upper 70s, or thereabouts, and lows in the 60s, and amply humidity. I expect a mix of sunshine and clouds, and as of now the models aren’t hinting at any really significant precipitation.

Houston’s weather now turns rather boring—and since we’re in March that means good things like dry air and moderate temperatures—so there’s not a whole lot to say about the forecast. Overall, expect some great Spring weather in the days ahead.

Wednesday

We’re starting out mostly in the 40s this morning, with some areas far inland touching the upper 30s. Conditions will quickly warm today with sunny skies, and we can expect highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Slight winds are currently from the east, and they will move to come from the southeast later today. We’ll see one more chilly night, with temperatures dropping to similar levels tonight as Tuesday night.

Thursday

Expect another brilliantly sunny day, with highs again near or at about 70 degrees. There will be a bit more humidity with light southeasterly winds in place, and accordingly lows will only drop into the 50s on Thursday night.

Friday

We’ll see partly to mostly cloudy skies on Friday, and highs should work themselves into the lower 70s. Some scattered, light showers may develop during the afternoon hours as a moderate cool front approaches, and moves through the area. Lows Friday night will drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend still looks great, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs generally in the upper 60s or so. Saturday night will be a tad cooler, with lows dropping into the 40s, and slightly warmer on Sunday night.

Next week

After this weekend our weather will see a warming trend, and I would not be surprised to see temperatures hit the 80-degree mark by the middle of next week. At that point another cool front will approach, but it’s not yet clear whether this front will make it all the way to the coast, or even close enough to Houston to produce rain showers. That’s something to worry about for another day. For now, we can simply enjoy the weather.

A quick note before we jump into the weather: My book on the origins of SpaceX, LIFTOFF, is available in bookstores everywhere today. It has received tremendous reviews so far, and I could not be more excited to share this remarkable story with the world. I must say, I put pretty much everything I had into reporting and writing this book. Ok, now on to the weather.

February was quite the month of weather for our region, with a fairly warm start, an extremely cold middle 10 days of the month, and a rather warm ending. Overall, February, 2021, will rank as about the 20th coldest February on record in the city of Houston over the last 140 years or so. The bar chart of daily temperatures, with record lows on February 15 and 16, is something else:

So what comes next? Although La Niña—a cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean—peaked at the end of 2020, we do remain in a moderate pattern. Although La Niña is weakening, we likely will see its effect through much of the spring, and for Texas that generally should mean warmer and drier conditions. I’ve looked at the various global and seasonal model forecasts for March, April, and May, and pretty much all of them align with this idea. So, too, does NOAA’s seasonal forecast for spring, which shows nearly all of the Lower 48 states seeing warmer than normal conditions.

What this all means is that spring is upon us, and pretty soon we are likely to see highs in the 70s and 80s with some regularity. The chances of a freeze for anywhere in Houston, and surrounding areas, is rapidly diminishing to near zero. A week ago, lows were in the 20s. Soon, our nights in the 40s will become increasingly rare.

Tuesday

After much of the Houston region picked up 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain overnight, the bulk of the precipitation has shifted eastward. Drier, and at-times gusty northerly winds will clear clouds out of the area later today, and temperatures should rise from the upper 40s to around 60 degrees. Temperatures tonight will drop to around 40 degrees, and this will be the coldest night of the week as clear skies prevail.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of splendid, mostly sunny days. Highs will likely get into the mid- or upper-60s on both days. Winds will shift to come from offshore later on Wednesday or Wednesday night, so lows will nudge into the mid-40s on Wednesday night, and likely won’t drop below the 50s on Thursday night.

Friday

Friday will be warmer and a bit muggier, with temperatures likely to reach about 70 degrees. A frontal passage later on Friday, during the afternoon or evening most likely, may generate some rain showers although there won’t be that much moisture in the atmosphere to work with. Temperatures on Friday night should drop into the 50s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend still looks pretty tremendous. We expect to see partly to mostly sunny skies, dry air, and highs somewhere in the mid- to upper-60s for the most part. Lows will likely drop down into the 50s—perhaps upper 40s for inland areas. Really, this should be just a great, great spring weekend for doing whatever you need to do around the area.

Most of next week should be warmer and more humid, with highs generally in the 70s, and lows likely around 60 degrees. Days should bring a mix of sunshine and clouds, with some better rain chances returning by Wednesday or Thursday, give or take. As we said, spring is descending upon Houston and looks to stay for awhile.