Matt Lanza

Brace your sinuses: We will be dealing with some ups and downs over the next 7 to 10 days. We’re about to end one of the “ups” and head into a brief “down” period this weekend, but if you have weekend plans, it looks delightful. As for the forthcoming holiday weekend? I’ll be spinning the wheel of discontent to determine what to forecast for you. Read on.

Today

We’ve seen a few showers pop up this morning across the region. As I write this, some heavier downpours are ongoing from near the Galleria into Spring Branch, lifting quickly southwest to northeast. That will be the story today: A lot of clouds and occasional showers. A thunderstorm will also be possible, especially as the cold front pushes across the area late this morning and early this afternoon.

The HRRR model above depicts the front just southeast of Downtown Houston by 1 PM this afternoon. So look for the front to pass through the region between 11 AM and 3 PM before moving offshore. The temperature drop immediately behind the front will not be too impressive, but it will be noticeable. Look for temps to peak around late morning or Noon in the mid- to upper-70s. We’ll drop into the mid- to upper-60s an hour or two after the front passes by.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday look splendid. Sunshine should dominate, punctuated by a few high clouds. High temperatures will get into the mid- to upper-60s.

Lows tomorrow morning should be in the 40s just about everywhere away from the coast. Sunday morning should bottom out similarly in the 40s to low-50s.

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With clouds and rain Thursday, we managed to only hit 48° for a high temperature. That was the third consecutive day of Houston not getting above 50°. When is the last time that occurred in November? That would be November 27 to 30, 1952.

No, the winter of 1952-53 was not especially cold. Houston only saw 3 nights of freezing temperatures after that November, none colder than 27°. One of the popular questions we’ve received is whether or not this cold weather so early means a cold winter. The unsatisfying answer I have to give you is that you simply can’t draw many conclusions about the subsequent winter based on this early season cold. It is just difficult to correlate it in either direction. But by any measure, this was one of the more powerful early season cold air masses in the U.S. in some time.

Now, we can discuss warming up a bit.

Today

Skies mostly cleared out overnight, and that has allowed fog to develop in many parts of the area.

Fog should dissipate over the next few hours, and by mid-morning we should be seeing the sun poke back out. Look for ample sunshine the rest of the way and high temperatures sneaking up into the upper-50s this afternoon. Break out the shorts, y’all!

Weekend

With clear skies, light winds, and a relatively dry air mass tonight, we should see temperatures actually get rather chilly again.

Expect upper-30s to around 40 or so in the city of Houston. Outlying suburbs will likely dip into the mid-30s. Folks way up north toward Cleveland or Conroe or Magnolia may drop to near-freezing. On the coast, look for Galveston to bottom out in the mid-40s.

Saturday itself looks lovely with sunshine and high temperatures around 60° or so. Expect Saturday night to be clear and chilly once more. Low temperatures will be about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than tonight, however. Look for around 40 in the city, mid- to upper-40s at the coast, and upper-30s in the northern and western suburbs.

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Thursday provided some mostly welcome rain for a large swath of the region. For the city of Houston, anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain fell. Generally lesser amounts fell to the north and higher amounts to the south.

The bullseyes were near Barker Reservoir and out through Cinco Ranch, where 4 to nearly 5 inches of rain was reported on Thursday. Another bullseye was noted from Friendswood through Kemah and San Leon, where 2 to 4 inches generally fell. Dreary weather hangs in today, but a nice weekend awaits.

Today

The title of this post includes the word “drearies.” Debate whether or not that’s a real word, but you can guess what it means. Look for clouds all day today. In addition, the region should see periods of light rain or drizzle throughout the day. A period of steadier rain is possible for a time this morning or afternoon. You can see some of that moving across the state on radar.

Additional rain totals today will range from about a tenth of an inch to perhaps up to a half-inch where the steadier rain falls. Temperatures will not move much, likely staying in the low- to mid-50s most of the day.

Showers should wrap up early this evening.

Weekend

Clouds could be a bit stubborn on Saturday, but skies will either clear out before sunrise or they’ll clear out on Saturday morning. Either way, a mainly sunny afternoon is expected. After morning lows in the 40s, high temperatures will peak in the low- to mid-60s.

After a cool start (around 50°) on Sunday morning, look for sunshine and highs in the upper-60s to low-70s Sunday afternoon. Sunday will see plenty of sunshine, though clouds could increase later in the day.

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Houston hit 57° officially on Halloween, a couple degrees warmer than expected, which allowed us to experience the fourth coldest Halloween maximum temperature since official records began in Houston in 1889. It was the coldest Halloween since we also hit 57° back in 1993, which featured the all-time October low temperature of 29° too.

A few other superlatives across Texas from yesterday:

• Amarillo was 14° on Thursday, the second coldest October temperature on record (back to 1892).
• Lubbock hit 16° on Thursday, their coldest October morning on record (back to 1913).
• Midland hit 16° on Thursday, their coldest October morning on record (back to 1930).
• Abilene hit 20° on Thursday, their coldest October morning on record (back to 1885).
• Dallas hit 30°, their 9th earliest freeze on record.

By any measure, this is not just an early season cold air mass, this is one of the earliest wintry air masses in Texas in recent years.

Houston is close to a record low this morning, but as of 6 AM, we’re just a couple ticks short.

As I write this, Houston officially sits at 37°, our coldest temperature since at least April 2nd. We will see if we can shave another degree or two off of that reading for the official low temperature and have our coldest morning since early March. The record low this morning is 35°, set back in 1993. The coldest readings in the metro area this morning seem to be right along Spring Creek to the north, with several sites reporting 31° as of 5:30 AM. Elsewhere, Conroe is down to 30°, Navasota has hit 29°, and Huntsville shows 28° so far. Pretty chilly!

Rest of today

The rest of Friday looks great. Sunshine will dominate, with nothing more than a few high clouds and temperatures will quickly warm up through the 40s and into the 50s. Most of the area should top out around 60 degrees or a little above that with much lighter winds than yesterday.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday should see mainly sunny skies. There could be a period or two of some higher clouds at times, blemishing the otherwise blue sky. But that’s about as bad as it would get. Morning lows on Saturday should still be cold, but they will end up a good bit milder than this morning, bottoming out in the low- to mid-40s.

A secondary cool front is going to push through on Saturday morning, which will just serve to reinforce the cool, dry air already over the area. Look for Saturday afternoon to still top off in the mid-60s. Sunday’s morning low and daytime high should be very similar to Saturday.

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