Temperatures have dropped into the low 50s this morning in much of Houston, with colder conditions in outlying areas, in the wake of Tuesday’s front. Sunny and pleasant weather will prevail until this weekend, when a slow-moving front will bring widespread rainfall into the region.

Wednesday

As high pressure settles across the region, we’ll see mostly sunny weather today with high temperatures pushing up to around 70 degrees. Winds will be fairly light, out of the west or northwest, at 5 to 10 mph. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 40s tonight, which should be the coldest night of the week in Houston.

Thursday

This will be a similar day to Wednesday, with sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. The only change will be in wind direction, with winds shifting to come from the southeast later on Thursday or Thursday night, which will presage a warmup heading into the weekend. Lows Thursday night will be a couple of degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

Another sunny day, but it will be a little warmer with highs in the mid-70s. Humidity will also be on the rise, with a more southerly flow, but overall it will still not feel particularly sticky. Lows Friday night probably will drop to around 60 in Houston. Sea fog may start to become an issue by Friday night or Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday

I think Saturday may start out with some sunshine, but with the onshore flow getting cranked up we are going to see increasing clouds and some scattered rain chances by late morning or the early afternoon hours. Highs will reach the upper 70s, or possibly even 80 degrees for areas that see some afternoon sunshine. The likelihood of rain increases Saturday night into Sunday morning as a slow-moving front slogs toward and through Houston, likely bringing 1 to 2 inches to much of the area. Sunday, as a result, will likely see mostly cloudy conditions with highs in the upper 60s, and on-and-off rain showers. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop into the low 50s.

Next week

Rain chances will linger into Monday morning, but after that we should see partly to mostly sunny skies for much of next week. We’ll likely be in a pattern where we see highs on the order of 70 degrees, with lows in the 50s. Before next weekend I think we’ll see a stronger front move into the area. If you’re running the Houston Marathon this year, which is on Sunday January 15th, my guess would be for lows in the 40s, and low chances for precipitation. So that’s a hopeful forecast, but one that is far from locked in at this point.

Good morning. A cold front is moving into Houston this morning, which will knock down the very sticky humidity the region has experienced for the last several days. Some storms will persist south of Interstate 10 this morning, but by mid- to late-morning drier air will be replacing this moisture, and bringing an end to rain chances. We’ll then be rain-free until the weekend, when the forecast turns more complex as another front slogs into the area.

Tuesday

Skies will clear out later this morning, and we’ll see a pleasant, sunny day with temperatures around 70 degrees. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 mph, with slightly higher gusts, so this won’t be a howling front in that sense. Lows tonight will drop down to around 50 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions in outlying areas.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be fine January days, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees, and lows in the upper 40s. Days will be sunny, and nights clear. Winds, generally, will be light.

Friday

As high pressure moves away from the area, the onshore flow will resume. Nevertheless, for most of Friday we should see sunny skies, with highs in the low 70s. Clouds will start to build Friday night, with lows dropping only to around 60 degrees, or slightly below that, in Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend is starting to come into better focus. What we’re likely to see is a slow-moving front push into the Houston and generate widespread rain showers. At this point I think skies will be mostly cloudy on Saturday, with perhaps a 30 percent chance of rain. The better chances will come into the forecast on Saturday night and Sunday. High temperatures on both days will likely be in the 60s, with lows in the 50s. I don’t think these will be flooding rains, but more likely showers and a few thunderstorms of the light- to moderate variety. Most areas should see on the order of 0.75 to 1.5 inch of rain, give or take, spread out over one to two days.

Next week

As the aforementioned front continues to linger over or near Houston, rain chances will likely persist into Monday morning before we finally clear out some behind the front. Most of next week looks pleasant for January, with highs in the 60s or low 70s, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Happy New Year! The year 2023 has started out warm, but a front will arrive on Tuesday morning to bring more seasonal conditions back into the forecast. Ahead of the front, we have some concerns about the potential for thunderstorms and severe weather later today and tonight, but overall the dynamics are not too supportive for this.

Monday

With very warm conditions this morning, and lows only in the low 70s, we are seeing some sea fog developing again. This should burn off by mid-morning, leaving us with a cloudy day and highs in the upper 70s. Two things we’ll be watching for today: strong southerly winds and the potential for thunderstorms. The winds are pretty much a certainty, as the onshore flow responds to high pressure over the central United States. We’re going to see gusts up to 30 or 35 mph this afternoon. As for the storms, I’m guessing a capping inversion in the atmosphere will limit activity, but you should be aware that there is the potential for some storms to break through the cap later this morning and early afternoon. The potential for rain lingers tonight as lows drop into the upper 60s.

Tuesday

Our second chance for storms will come late tonight and Tuesday morning ahead of the actual cold front. A (broken?) line of showers and thunderstorms should push into areas northwest of Houston around 3 to 5 am, the metro area around 5 to 7 am, and off the coast by around 10 am. For some people, this will be the first day commuting back to the office for awhile, so be aware you may need some extra time due to the potential for storms if this timing is accurate. The skies will clear pretty quickly after the storms, so we can expect clear skies and highs in the low 70s on Tuesday afternoon with notably drier air. Lows drop to around 50 degrees on Tuesday night, with colder conditions further inland.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Our weather settles down for the rest of the week, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-60s to 70 degrees. Lows will generally be in the mid-40s through Thursday night before a warm-up heading into the weekend.

Saturday and Sunday

The high pressure system that will bring sunny weather during the second half of the work week will slide eastward by Friday, setting up a warmer and potentially wetter weekend. At this point I think Saturday will be mostly rain-free, with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s. Sunday has a better chance of rain, perhaps 30 percent, and at this point I’d guess we’ll see mostly cloudy skies and highs of around 70 degrees.

Next week

I’m afraid there is not a whole lot of certainty in the forecast by around Sunday and beyond. I think the most likely scenario is that a cold front moves into Houston and essentially stalls, setting up a pattern of a few colder, and rainy days. But do I feel highly confident about such a scenario? I do not.

Looking ahead to the weekend of January 14 to 15, a few people have asked me about conditions for the Houston Marathon. At this point there is a decent signal in the global models for a slightly stronger front toward the end of next week, so I’m thinking we’ll see start line temperatures in the 40s. The good news is that right now it does not look too warm or too muggy. The bad news is that a forecast for 13 days from now is about as helpful as cramps at mile 20.

It was 15 degrees in Houston a week ago this morning. We managed 77 degrees yesterday afternoon. The winter roller coaster is here. In addition to the warmth, we saw some pretty gnarly storms over parts of the area, even a Tornado Warning down near Galveston.

As Eric accurately noted yesterday, the rainfall was quite erratic. Rain totals ranged from over 5 inches near in Galveston County to next to nothing in western Harris, northern Fort Bend, and southern Waller Counties. In between, it was hit and miss. Some areas saw tremendous displays of lightning, while others may have only heard some distant rumblings. So it goes. We’ll settle in to some very mild but fair weather over the next few days before our next speed bump on Monday.

Today

We have a little patchy fog in spots this morning. Other than that, just a lot of clouds. On the whole, we’ll call it “decreasing clouds” with hopefully a bit of sunshine later today. Depending on sunshine, we’ll either hit the upper-60s or low-70s today. Accompanying last evening’s system was a very weak front that will make its presence felt tonight, sort of. Light north winds should allow temperatures to dip into the 50s.

New Year’s Eve & air quality concerns

We should have partly to mostly sunny skies across the area tomorrow, along with highs into the 70s. All your festivities, from “Noon Years” for those of us with little ones to watch parties for TCU hopefully beating up on the Fighting Harbaughs of Michigan to evening celebrations look great. The only thing to watch will be areas of fog near the coast, so use some caution if you’ll be out and about late Saturday night and after midnight Sunday morning.

One word of caution: Fireworks and air quality.

Unfortunately, the setup this New Years is going to be one that features mostly light winds and likely a very strong inversion in the atmosphere. In simple language? All the pollution from those fireworks everyone sets off on New Year’s Eve probably isn’t going to go far, and we are likely in for some very unhealthy, if not outright hazardous air quality across the region at times late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. The good news is that winds don’t look totally calm, but they will be light. So if you have respiratory difficulties, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on area air quality readings. Winds and “mixing” will pick up after 9 or 10 AM Sunday. So if we end up with a lot of trapped smoke in the early morning, the afternoon should at least be nicer.

New Year’s Day

As noted, air quality may be an issue Sunday morning, but at least it should become sunny. Some morning fog is possible, if not likely in spots, and clouds will likely increase through the day. Highs could get to 80 degrees in spots. Coastal areas may again see fog persist deep into the day.

Monday

The forecast for Monday continues to look a bit tricky. It may play out very similar to yesterday, with numerous storms, locally heavy rain, and isolated severe weather. Or it could be more widespread. We still don’t have a great handle on this and likely will not until Sunday. Look for an average of a half-inch or so of rain, but it’s likely many places see less and others, especially east of I-45 see 3 inches or more. Highs will top off near 80 in spots, 70s elsewhere.

Rest of next week (and chances of a freeze-peat this winter?)

After Monday’s rain, a cold front and slow clearing should arrive on Tuesday, bringing much cooler weather for Wednesday. We’ll probably drop back to 60s by day and 40s by night for much of the rest of next week. Another warm up is likely late next week or weekend.

We’ve seen a lot of questions about the chances of another freeze this winter. Put simply: We have no idea. There’s no rule that says if you freeze in December like we did this year that it can’t happen again later in January or February. The odds are no different the rest of winter today than they were a month ago. So, yes, it’s possible it could happen again. Likely? Not necessarily. There’s no sign of emergent cold in Canada or the Plains over the next 2 weeks, meaning any strong cold is unlikely here through mid-January. If anything, the jet stream in the Pacific Ocean is trying to ramp up again in mid-January, which could signal another period of warm weather to come. The takeaway? While we see no sign of a freeze-peat right now, that doesn’t mean things can’t change later in January or February. But it’s neither more or less likely than normal because we had one this month.

Happy New Year to you, readers. On behalf of Eric, Maria, Lee, and Dwight, thank you all for a great 2022, and we look forward to another great year in 2023.