The Houston area has sort of settled into a happy (?) medium this weekend with moderate heat, a good bit of sunshine, but definitely at least a handful of showers each afternoon. Some locations in northern Harris County (Louetta, Champions, Klein) saw an inch to an inch and a half of rain on Sunday. A few other areas also saw wetting showers. Some saw nothing all weekend. As we go through this week, the expectation should be for fairly similar weather: Sun, heat, and at least a few showers each day. This may actually be our most “normal” week of summer so far.

Today

Today should bring us similar weather to the weekend, with at least a couple storms around this afternoon. Coverage today may be a bit underwhelming, so consider yourself fortunate if you see one. We will likely top out in the upper-90s, similar to perhaps a touch hotter than the weekend.

Tuesday

Tomorrow will see more of the same. Rain chances should be a little higher than they will be today, however, and they may be the peak of this week. Expect maybe a 20 to 30 percent chance that you’ll win the rainfall lottery. Temperatures should be mainly in the mid-90s, but they’ll be a bit hotter where it doesn’t rain and cooler where it does.

Wednesday & Thursday

The mid to late week period will also see elevated rain chances in that 20 to 30 percent range, but again each day will be like playing the rainfall lottery. Still, it’s something. Highs will be in the mid to upper-90s.

Friday & weekend

The weekend forecast stays at least a little interesting from a rain chance perspective. A front should stall to the north of the region, allowing places like Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Kansas to get some meaningful rain. For us, the overall pattern should kick up atmospheric moisture a bit up to about the 90th percentile or a bit higher. In simple language? There will be a little more “juice” to work with, especially Friday and possibly Saturday. Coverage of storms should increase a bit on those days before declining some on Sunday.

It would appear that hotter, low rain chance type weather may rebound next week. More on all that in the coming days.

Tropics

All in quiet. A tropical wave in the Atlantic looked as if it could develop later this week, but model support for that has plummeted in the last 36 hours. It’s still a bit hostile out there. More in tomorrow’s tropical update.

Just a quick note: Tomorrow’s posts will likely be delayed, but we’ll have something out to you by late morning. The tropics post will get pushed tomorrow later in the afternoon or evening. Thanks for your patience!

Temperatures once again topped out at 100° officially on Thursday at Bush Airport, our 5th straight day of triple digit heat and 18th day overall in 2022. Only 1902 (19), 1980 (32), 1998 (24), 2000 (20), and 2011 (46) had more 100 degree days for the entire year.

Drought continues to worsen around the Houston area.

We saw level 3 (extreme) drought expand from 30 percent coverage to 37 percent coverage across the region through Tuesday. Most of the Houston metro area is in severe to extreme drought conditions now. We should see further degradation with next week’s update as well.

But, we may have at least something to watch in the longer-term forecast that could change things up. Let’s get into things.

Today & Saturday

We will see a brief respite in what has been a stifling upper level pattern this week. Texas will lie on the western periphery of a “weakness” between two ridges, one off the East Coast and one in the Southwest. This should allow for non-zero rain chances and at least slightly less hot weather both today and tomorrow.

We’ll call it about a 20 percent chance of showers or storms, probably a tinge higher tomorrow than today, with the best odds being south and east of Houston.

Outside of modest rain chances, we’ll remain quite hot. A few places will likely try again for 100 today and tomorrow, but we should see more upper-90s in the area than we have the last few days. You’ll see temperatures drop a good 10 to 15 degrees if you’re fortunate enough to see a shower. Overnight lows will remain warm and muggy in the 70s.

Sunday & Monday

We sort of revert back to a more robust summer pattern Sunday into Monday, which should mean more 100s risk and lower rain chances.

I still think we could see a pop up storm or two, but I would not be betting on it for either Sunday or Monday. Highs near 100, lows in the 70s.

Tuesday through late week

Tuesday should continue hot, but there may be a slightly better chance of afternoon showers or storms. Same goes for Wednesday. I would expect highs well into the 90s to near 100 on both days. There are signs of life for late next week. At least a temporary disruption of the stagnant summer pattern seems possible. This would mean more mid-90s by day instead of 100s. More importantly, it would mean a few days of average to slightly above average rain chances. I’m hesitant to get too worked up about this, but it does appear that the upper pattern will allow the Gulf door to open more than it has been most of this summer. At least for a few days. Fingers crossed. More on that for you Monday.

Tropics

Quiet. Nothing to speak of, but there are hints of at least a possible weak system wayyyy out in the Atlantic later next week perhaps. Nothing the Gulf needs to be concerned with right now. More on that in Tuesday’s tropics post.

Speaking of next week: Just want to give you a heads up that both Eric and I are planning some time off next week to gear up for the marathon of peak hurricane season. We’ll continue posting like normal, but just bear with us if the timing is a little off on a day here or there. Thanks for understanding!

Good morning. The month of July is now two-thirds over, and if the month ended today Houston’s average temperature of 88.6 degrees would rank as the warmest July on record by nearly a full degree. I’m now confident we’ll set this record for July.

Alas, there is not much good news I can offer today except this: We’re now reaching the historically warmest part of the summer—from about July 20 to August 20. Why is this good news? For the optimist in me, this means we can at least begin to dream of fall.

Thursday

With high pressure more or less overhead we’re going to see another sweltering day, similar to Wednesday. Expect highs in the low 100s for inland locations, and upper 90s along the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny, with a less than 10 percent chance of rain. Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 10 mph.

Friday

As the high starts to back off slightly, a disturbance may approach the area from the east on Friday. This will have modest effect on temperatures, perhaps limiting highs to the upper 90s. It will also produce a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain from a passing shower. Good luck!

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend is going to be hot, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees for most of the area. Rain chances are probably in the 10 to 20 percent range for coastal areas, with lesser chances further inland.

Next week

As we get deeper into next week I’m still anticipating a slight moderation in temperatures as the high pressure system slowly moves eastward. I expect much of the region to see highs in the mid- to upper-90s, with a slight 20 to 30 percent chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms. It won’t be much relief, but it will beat what we’ve been experiencing.

Houston will see peak heating the next couple of days—with nearly all of the region experiencing triple digit temperatures away from the immediate coast—before a dominant high pressure system starts to progress eastward. This should slowly start a return to somewhat more normal weather, which is to say by the middle of next week we could be in the mid-90s, with decent rain chances.

Wednesday

An excessive heat warning is in effect for inland counties today, including the cities of Crockett, Madisonville, Huntsville, Caldwell, College Station, Bryan, Brenham, and Navasota. This means these areas could see high temperatures of 105 degrees or above, with dangerous heat levels due to humidity. The rest of the region should see highs of around 100 degrees, or a bit higher, with only the coast remaining in the 90s. Skies will be sunny, with southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph, and higher gusts. Lows tonight will not drop below 80 degrees.

Thursday

Another brutally hot day, similar to Wednesday.

Friday

By Friday the high pressure system should start to back off a little bit, and this should open up the potential for a few isolated to scattered coastal showers. However, I don’t expect these rains to make it past Interstate 10. Most of the region should otherwise see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the upper 90s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring highs in the upper-90s for much of the region, with mostly sunny skies and only slight 10 to 20 percent rain chances.

Next week

After starting in the upper 90s, temperatures will be slow to come down next week. But by Wednesday or Thursday we could start to drop back toward the mid-90s, and with a few more clouds begin to see the more widespread development of showers and thunderstorms. For now I’d guess rain chances most days will be in the 30 percent range, but there’s just no way to tell with much precision at this point. The bottom line is that the next six or seven days look pretty dry, in terms of rainfall, but there is least some potential for change after that point.