Good morning. The overall outlook for our forecast remains the same: We’ll see a breezy warm week, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Thursday night as a dying front moves into the area. As high pressure settles in this weekend, look for really hot weather, with highs likely in the low- to mid-90s.

Tuesday

Skies will be partly sunny today, with high temperatures likely pushing into the upper 80s. Southerly winds will again be noticeable at around 15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph or even higher. There may be a few scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms, but overall chances are quite low. Skies will be mostly cloudy tonight, with lows in the mid-70s.

Wednesday

This will be a day a lot like Tuesday.

Thursday

A “cold” front will approach our region on Thursday, but I hesitate to call it that because the front will not bring much of a change in our temperatures or humidity. However it will destabilize our atmosphere, and bring a chance of thunderstorms and potentially severe weather to the northern part of our region. Overall rain chances are probably about 50 percent for areas inland of Interstate 10, and 30 percent for areas south. Highs Thursday will probably top out in the mid-80s. Lows Thursday night will again probably be in the mid-70s.

Friday

As skies clear up, we’ll see temperatures rise to about 90 degrees on Friday. Winds will remain from the south, but should be a more moderate 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday and Sunday

As mentioned, the weekend looks downright hot. For most of the region, highs should slot somewhere in between 90 and 95 degrees, and with the humidity it’s going to feel like full-on summer in Houston. Congratulations to those who celebrate. Apologies to those who suffer.

Next week

Highs will likely slowly moderate next week, especially with the return of some clouds, but highs should remain at about 90 degrees. A cool front may bring some relief in the Thursday or Friday time frame of next week, but please don’t hold me to that.

Welcome to May, a month in Houston that typically feels more like summer than spring. Before we jump into the forecast I want to look back at April’s weather, which was warmer, windier, and brought us fewer showers that are supposed to bring May flowers. The average temperature in April was 72.8 degrees, which was 2.8 degrees above normal. The winds, perhaps the most recognizable feature last month, averaged 11.0 mph, which is more than 2 mph above normal. And while rainfall totals varied pretty widely, our regional drought worsened for areas south of Interstate 10. May will be warmer, but we might hope that it will be a little rainier, and a little less windy.

Monday

Cloudy skies this morning will give way to partly sunny conditions later today, with high temperatures likely pushing into the mid- to upper-80s. As an atmospheric disturbance moves through from west to east this morning, we may see a few light to moderate showers, but these should end by around noon. Winds will blow from the south at 10 to 20 mph, with some gusts as high as 25 mph possible this afternoon. It will be a humid evening, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s.

Tuesday

A similar day to Monday, with highs likely in the upper 80s and a mix of sunshine and clouds. Winds will also be notable out of the south. But whereas rain chances were about 20 percent on Monday, they’re probably 10 percent or less on Tuesday.

Wednesday

Most likely this will be another warm, humid, and windy day with highs pushing into the upper 80s. Rain chances again will be quite low.

Thursday and Friday

Our weather toward the end of the week will be partly determined by whether an advancing front makes it all the way to Houston, and down to the coast. I’m at about 50-50 on whether this happens, The front won’t bring much cooling, but it could spark a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms—perhaps 30 percent—on Thursday or Thursday night—and bring some drier air into the region. Highs both days should be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees, regardless.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Regardless of what the front does, we can be pretty confident in a hot weekend as high pressure builds into the area. We’re talking highs in the low 90s, with lots of sunshine and ample humidity. This warm and mostly sunny pattern will continue at least into early next week.

As we prepare to flip the calendar to May, the weather will fast forward a few weeks, as forecast highs near 90 degrees, more commonplace for late May, become a feature in the days ahead.

We’ll start today with a drought update. You probably assumed that this week’s impressive rains acted to relieve the drought some in our area, and you would be correct. Coverage of drought in the Houston area dropped about 15 percent versus a week ago. We’ll need another couple rounds of storms in the next couple weeks to keep that improvement going.

Will we get that? I’m not sure, truthfully. The pattern will support active weather near our region, but it may miss us to the north and east more often than not, so we’ll have to see. This could be a situation where things don’t change much north of Houston but perhaps they get worse south of Houston. That brings us to the forecast.

Today

Sun and clouds will mix for us today, and we’ll see temperatures and humidity both nudge higher versus yesterday. We should do mid to upper-80s for highs this afternoon.

Weekend

This weekend will see a cold front drop south into the extreme northern fringe of our region tomorrow. We expect it will stall out north of Huntsville, but it may come close enough to deliver at least a few showers into the northern third of the Houston area tomorrow afternoon. The best chance would be outside the Beltway to the north; think Conroe, Cleveland, Magnolia.

An additional slight chance of showers would be in play on Sunday as well, again mostly north or perhaps east of the area. We don’t believe you’ll need to alter any weekend plans, but just be prepared in case a stray shower or downpour passes by.

It will be firmly like mid-May this weekend with lows in the 70s and highs in the mid to upper-80s.

For those of you riding in the MS 150 this weekend, day 1 will feature those hot temperatures but also a south wind. It will be consistent along the length of the ride from Houston through La Grange, sustained around 5 to 10 mph, with periodic gusts closer to 20 mph.

Day 2 will be a little breezier. While temperatures and humidity should be about on par with Saturday, the wind will shift to more of a southeasterly breeze. It will be more like 10 to 15 mph, with more frequent 20 mph gusts.

It should never be a headwind, but it may be a bit annoying at times. Keep an eye out for a few showers, especially on day 2, but it should hopefully be nothing that causes any problems. Whatever the case, good luck to all those participating!

Early next week

The first part of next week should be fairly similar to the weekend: Clouds, sun, hot temperatures, high humidity, and a very slight chance of a few showers. Expect lows in the 70s and highs well into the 80s, with an outside shot at 90 degrees in spots, along with a noticeable south or southeast wind, gusting to 20 mph or so.

Later next week

The late week question revolves around whether or not we get a cold front into our area. Right now, that seems to be a low probability thought. The front should probably hold out until the weekend, and even if it gets here, any relief would be brief. Outside of that, we will keep hot temperatures, high humidity, and a low-end rain chance each day heading toward next weekend. We’ll refine this more on Monday.

Good morning. After our spectacular weather on Wednesday, the story of the next several days will be that of warming weather to the point where it almost feels like summer in Houston, but not quite. I expect we’ll see several days of low 90s next week.

Thursday

Today will bring something of a transition day, as southerly winds start to pick up to around 10 to 15 mph. This increase in atmospheric moisture will help generate a few clouds and nudge high temperatures into the low- to mid-80s. We’ll also see dewpoints rise into the mid-60s, which will start to bring more humidity in, but won’t feel oppressively so. Overnight low temperatures on Thursday likely won’t drop much below 70 degrees for most of the area.

Friday

By Friday we’ll be well into the upper 80s, with southerly winds gusting to about 20 mph, and a mixture of sunshine and clouds. Lows Friday night probably will drop to only about 70 degrees.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will see a cold front push into Texas, but probably not into the Houston metro area. In response to the approaching front our winds from the south may veer a bit more southwesterly, and this is likely to boost temperatures. I expect much of the region away from the coast to reach 90 degrees. For areas north of Interstate 10 there is perhaps a 10 or 15 percent chance of rain later on Saturday or Saturday night.

Sunday

Sunday should bring more of the same, with partly sunny skies and highs near or at 90 degrees. There will again be a slight chance of rain but the vast majority of us will remain dry. Southerly winds, at times gusting to 15 or 20 mph, should be a constant companion. With dewpoints rising into the low 70s, expect it to feel sticky outside for sure.

Next week

High pressure will begin building over the weekend, and we’ll feel its effects at least through the middle of next week and possibly beyond. This will manifest itself in highs near 90 degrees, or just above, with partly sunny days and warm, humid nights. When might this change? Maybe next weekend, around Friday or Saturday, or thereafter, some kind of weak front might make it through. No promises whatsoever, I’m afraid. Fall, winter, and spring have had a good run … but now we’ve got to face up to about five months of summer.