After a stunning Sunday, the sunshine is mostly going to disappear for some time, and Houston faces a significantly wetter period in which we may have some flooding concerns. There is, frankly, not much confidence in any of the forecast models at this point, but all point to a period of on-and-off heavy rainfall due to a moist atmosphere and meandering fronts.

The bottom line is that the region could see from 4 to 10 inches of rain—roughly speaking—over the next seven days, but it’s hard to pin down the best days and locations for accumulations at this time. On a day-to-day basis we may have concerns about street flooding. We also have concerns about the Trinity (which already will near major flood stage Wednesday near Liberty) and Brazos (already forecast to reach a minor flood stage Friday morning at Richmond) rivers, as these rains could add multiple inches of rains to those basis. Then, as the week wears on, our grounds may become increasingly saturated and vulnerable to heavy rainfall events that move past street flooding and into yards. Overall, this will be a week to pay attention to forecasts, and we’ll do our best to stay on top of what appears to be a dynamic situation. Please clap—I resisted saying it was a fluid situation.

Monday

We can have the most confidence in our weather for Monday. We’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds today, and the additional sky cover should help to limit temperatures in the mid-80s. This is probably the last day, for a week or so, that we can definitively say it will not rain. Also, after drier air filtered into the region this weekend, an onshore flow today will begin to pump moisture back into Houston, setting the stage for wetter days ahead. Lows Monday night will fall into the lower 70s for most.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, a disturbance in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will bring a healthy chance of rainfall into the region, with most of the rains likely falling during the daytime hours. Rain accumulations across Houston will probably range from 0.25 to 2.0 inches, although some areas will undoubtedly see less, and some more. Our biggest concern is that some areas will see heavy rainfall during this time as the overall dynamics do not favor severe storms, for the most part.

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A major line of storms pulsed through the Houston area early Saturday—but well before sunrise they pushed to the east of the region. Some lingering showers are possible later this morning, but for the most part we should be dry from here on out. The overnight storms dropped 1-2 inches of rain, and may have spawned a tornado.

Now, however, we should see a nice May weekend. Clouds should eventually break apart this afternoon, leading to a pleasant evening, with inland parts of the region potentially seeing lows in the upper 60s. Sunday should see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.

As Matt mentioned Friday, the coming week looks potentially quite wet, especially the period from Thursday through Saturday. It’s too early to have too much confidence in the timing and details, but a slow-moving front could make for very wet conditions, with multiple inches of rain and the potential for at least some street flooding. But we wouldn’t worry too much about that yet; for now enjoy the weekend and we’ll provide a full (and hopefully clearer) update of the situation on Monday morning.

Some active weather is likely to continue over the next 24 hours, so we’ll get right into that before talking about a mostly nice weekend to follow.

Early morning Friday

Radar as of 5:40 this morning, shows minimal amounts of showers around Houston. There’s some rain well to the north of Conroe that is falling apart.

Scattered showers and storms were pressing east of Austin, more toward the Brazos Valley. Heavier rain and storms (non-severe) in San Antonio were sliding east toward Victoria and places west of Houston. Over the next few hours, these showers will gradually migrate toward Houston, but for the most part, our early morning looks fairly quiet.

Friday late morning & afternoon

Weather modeling has been some kind of inconsistent over the last couple days in terms of what and where with rainfall. So to some degree, this leaves us flying partially blind today. We can tell you a couple things with confidence: First, there will be plenty of moisture available for storms today. This is probably the most we’ve seen all week, so it should mean coverage of storms today will be at their highest of the week for Houston. Second, we need a trigger, and with numerous boundaries in the area and more coming from the San Antonio area, that should be enough to get showers and storms going later this morning and this afternoon.

What we cannot tell you with much specificity, and what is naturally most frustrating to us (and you I’m sure) is exactly where and when the heaviest rains will occur. The image above is a sample from two short-range, high resolution models we look at each day. They are valid for the same time: 1 PM this afternoon. The HRRR (at left) shows an organized heavy cluster of storms. The NAM (right) shows scattered showers. I am leaning toward the HRRR idea right now, but basically at this point, the best advice we can give you is to bring an umbrella and be ready to potentially deal with some storms and heavy rain from late morning into this evening.

In terms of severe weather, it is possible we see some strong winds or hail, but the biggest concern with these storms will be heavy rain and localized street flooding. Any storms could produce rain rates of 1-2″ per hour or more which, if over one place, could lead to some street flooding.

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