Houston got a taste of sunshine to start the new year, but now we’ve returned to cloudy weather. Soon, rain will follow, and due to the nature of our saturated soils and lesser ability of dead vegetation to absorb rainfall, a flash flood watch is in effect through noon Thursday. We’re not overly concerned with the possibility of widespread flooding, but certainly the next day or so will be a wet, chilly affair.

Wednesday through midday Thursday

A combination of moisture streaming into the area from the Gulf of Mexico (this is occurring above the surface, because winds near the ground are out of the northeast), as well as a disturbed atmosphere will drive the potential for rain today, tonight, and Thursday morning. While much of the rain will likely be of the light-to-moderate variety, a few embedded heavier showers are possible. Moreover, because the rain could last for hours in some locations, we may eventually see accumulations of up to about 3 inches. Because soils simply cannot handle much (any) of this rain, almost all it will run off into streets and bayous.

Overall, this messy weather should eventually move off to the east by Thursday morning, or early afternoon time frame, as a cold front moves through. Before then, highs will be in the 50s, lows in the 40s, and skies leaden. I know some of you love winter weather like this, so enjoy it while it lasts.

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I hope everyone is enjoying the sunny start to 2019. I’m just jumping in here on New Year’s Day to note that the messy pattern on Wednesday and Thursday—before a front sweeps through, and clears out our weather for a beautiful weekend—is trending wetter.

In short, the front responsible for our clear skies today has essentially stalled offshore, and this will allow moisture to flow back toward the Texas coast at higher levels of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, a slow-moving upper-level low pressure system will approach the region from the west, arriving in time to set up a wet pattern on Wednesday and Thursday. Whereas this looked like a moderate, 1-inch rain storm yesterday, it now appears capable of producing widespread areas of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with higher isolated totals.

During summertime, such rainfall amounts would be of little concern. But now, in the middle of winter, with vegetation mostly dead or dormant and saturated soils, rainfall will not be readily absorbed, and will instead pond in yards as well as run into streets and bayous. We don’t anticipate too many problems, but there are some concerns about brief street flooding and area rivers. These waterways are falling from peaks on Sunday, but could rise again fairly quickly. According to Jeff Lindner of the Harris County Flood Control District, there is also concern for watersheds that respond like a river system: Cypress Creek, Little Cypress Creek, Willow Creek, Spring Creek, Cedar Bayou, and the creeks that drain into Addicks and Barker Reservoirs.

The rain potential begins to increase by Wednesday morning, and this mess should finally clear out by Thursday late morning, or afternoon. After that we can expect mostly sunny skies through the weekend—which still looks pretty spectacular for early January.

New Year’s Eve has dawned wet, gray, and cool but today’s weather should only improve from here as a modest cool front moves through and brings westerly winds to dry the region out. It appears as though we’ll see one more bout of rainfall during the mid-week period before a longer spell of drier weather settles over the region. Is anyone else tired of gray skies and on-again, off-again rain showers?

New Year’s Eve

Rain showers are ending from west to east, and should exit the area entirely by around 10am. We may see a few visits from the Sun later today, but skies will likely remain mostly cloudy this afternoon as temperatures rise into the low-60s. Fortunately, this front isn’t too strong, so we’re not going to see blustery conditions later today and tonight. In fact, as the sun sets this evening, winds should die down with it. Therefore, for festivities tonight, we can expect partly cloudy skies, temperatures near 50 degrees, and generally pleasant conditions. Please celebrate responsibly!

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