Matt Lanza

Fabulous Friday before we go gray again this weekend

It’s another pleasantly cool morning in the Houston area, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s today. This weekend will present a mixed bag of weather, with a lovely start to Friday, followed by warmer, more humid, and drearier conditions heading into Saturday. A cold front Sunday will bring us a chance of rain and thunderstorms. We are growing more confident that a very robust cold front will slice through the area later next week, ushering some pretty cool temperatures for early April just ahead of Easter weekend.

Today

Look for outstanding weather today. Sunshine and blue skies to start, and we’ll watch for clouds to build in later today. We should see high temperatures approaching or exceeding 80 degrees this afternoon in many locations.

Saturday

Clouds will thicken up and begin to lower tonight as onshore flow ramps up behind a warm front. This should mean fog and drizzle overnight. So expect Saturday to start off a bit dreary in much of the area. We could see partial clearing Saturday afternoon, and as we do, a few showers may develop mainly north of I-10 in the afternoon. We will see highs likely in the 80s after morning lows in the 60s.

Sunday

A cold front will drop into the northern part of the area on Saturday night. Showers and a few thunderstorms may begin to develop out ahead of the front across the Houston area overnight and early Sunday. Weather models are still split on exactly how far offshore how fast this front gets on Sunday. Some hang the front back over Houston, while others push it offshore. It’s easy to see the model differences just by looking at the rain forecast on Sunday in our area from each of them

Euro: 0.5-2″
GFS: Trace-0.25″
NAM: Trace-0.25″
Canadian: 0.25-0.75″

Clearly the Euro & Canadian hold back the front, generating more rain, while the NAM & GFS are much more progressive, pushing most rain well offshore.

The NWS rainfall forecast sort of splits the difference with about a quarter-inch through Sunday evening. Some places will see little to no rain aside from Saturday’s drizzle. Other areas could see some heavier downpours on Sunday. (Weather Bell)

While there’s clearly a bit of uncertainty still, I would probably argue for splitting the difference right now: The best chance of showers should be south and east of Houston, while areas north and west see little to no rain on Sunday. I would say about a quarter-inch of rain on average. Higher amounts can’t be ruled out if the front stalls onshore, but at the same time, the rain will be sporadic enough that some places may see little to no rain at all.

Temperatures will also be tricky to pin down. Everyone should see highs somewhere in the 70s on Sunday. Morning lows, however, may range from the upper 50s northwest of Houston to upper 60s in the city and toward the coast.

Early Next Week

By Monday morning, even the Euro and Canadian models have pushed the front offshore, and the area should see a fairly nice day with highs in the 70s after morning lows in the 50s. Onshore flow kicks back into gear Tuesday with more clouds, a slight chance of drizzle or light rain, and high temperatures ramping back up into the 80s probably.

Big pre-Easter cold front

Weather models seem to be in pretty good agreement overall regarding later next week. Onshore flow really begins to ramp Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front will approach later Wednesday or early Thursday. This one has a little more muscle behind it than most recent fronts, so expect to see a pretty substantial drop in temperatures once it clears.

What we are confident in: A cold front with some showers, followed by much cooler, drier air sometime Wednesday or Thursday lingering into the weekend.

What we are not confident in: The exact timing of the front, how much rain, exactly how cool the air will be behind the front, the odds of a light freeze in northwestern parts of the area, and whether or not we can keep the pleasant weather going all the way to Easter Sunday.

Given the model data right now, once it clears our area, we’ll likely see something on the order of highs in the upper-60s with lows in the 40s for late next week. There are a number of European ensemble members even pushing lows into the 30s for Houston next weekend! It’s too soon to talk about a late season light freeze in northwest parts of the area, but it’s worth monitoring if you have things planted. Each model run this week has progressed a couple degrees colder with the air mass late next week, so our confidence in this has nudged up a little also.

A chart of forecast lows from the 51 different European ensemble members shows strong agreement in a much cooler air mass late next week with lows likely in the 40s, possibly even a little colder.

Can the nice weather keep going into Easter Sunday? Maybe. I think the smart money is on the air mass starting to warm up a bit by then with some added cloud cover, but at this point we don’t see a significant risk of rain at least. Eric will have the latest on this for you on Monday.

Spring break week for many to close out with more nice weather

Good morning! We are in store for a delightful weekend of weather here in Houston, so I want to touch on a couple items before we get into the forecast details: Hurricane season & drought.

Changes coming to the 2021 hurricane season

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) met this week, as they do each year to discuss hurricane names that should be retired, among other items. If you have not yet heard, some newsworthy items came out of that meeting.

First off, several storm names were retired. Since they didn’t meet due to the pandemic last year, both 2019 and 2020 were addressed this year. For 2019, the only retiree was Hurricane Dorian, which devastated the Bahamas in particular. Tropical Storm Imelda, which killed 6 and caused roughly $5 billion in damage as a storm many across Southeast Texas won’t soon forget was not retired. Imelda will appear again in 2025. For 2020, Hurricane Laura was retired. Hurricanes Eta and Iota, which both devastated Nicaragua were also retired. For those curious, Dexter will replace Dorian in 2025 and Leah will replace Laura in 2026.

In addition, the Greek alphabet was retired. No, really. The WMO agreed that if a season’s name list was exhausted, shifting to a list of Greek letters was too confusing. So they now have what amounts to an auxiliary list of storm names that will be utilized in the event we use all the names on the primary list for that season.

I believe that if one of those names is retired, it will just disappear and be replaced like any other season. Previously, they could not retire Greek letters.

Thoughts: Matt’s opinion here, but I’m not entirely surprised Imelda was not retired. That doesn’t necessarily make it right, as I feel Imelda coming sort of on the heels of Harvey makes it a special case for a highly populated, if small-ish area of impact. Claudette in 1979, which flooded Alvin terribly was never retired either. So there is certainly precedent, but again, if it were Matt’s decision, retiring Imelda would kind of be like having Harold Baines in the Baseball Hall of Fame. There’s a case one could make there, even if it is very, very borderline. As far as the Greek letters being canned? I like it a lot. I think this is absolutely the right decision, and it will create much less confusion and distraction, should we get there again.

Drought worsening

The Drought Monitor was updated yesterday, and although Wednesday’s rain is not included in this calculation, drought did worsen across both Texas as a whole and locally in the Houston area.

Move the slider left or right to see a comparison of Drought Monitor maps for Texas from last week and this week. Drought continues to encroach on the Houston area from all sides. (US Drought Monitor)

The only part of Texas not really seeing drought get worse is the El Paso area and far west, as drought is already pretty bad there. The Greater Houston area went from about 35 percent of the region in drought last week to almost 60 percent this week. NOAA’s outlook for the next few months suggests drought will maintain or worsen across Texas.

As we’ve noted, this is a story we will continue to follow.

Today & weekend

We will close out the week on a cool but sunny note. There are some high clouds that could drop in from the north today, but short of that, expect sunshine and 60s this afternoon with a bit less wind than yesterday. Saturday should be similar with mainly sunshine but at least some chance of high clouds at times. We’ll start in the 40s in most places tomorrow, warming into the 60s, with areas south and west of Houston pushing back near 70 degrees.

Our winds will shift onshore on Sunday, with warmer, more humid air beginning to gradually filter in off the Gulf. Look for morning lows in the 40s and low-50s and highs in the upper-60s to low-70s and a good bit of sunshine once again.

Next week

A pair of upper level systems will move into the region, with the first arriving later Monday and Tuesday and another later in the week. These will each help drive a cold front into the Houston area, along with a chance of showers and storms. As is often the case this time of year, there are questions as to how far offshore the fronts will get or if they (particularly the first one) will fall apart over us. Either way, look for a somewhat unsettled week next week with a couple days of rain chances and generally warm temperatures. We should see a final front push well off to our east and somewhat cooler weather arrive by later in the week or next weekend. We will have finer details for you on Monday.

Houston’s temperatures head for a bit of a roller coaster ride after Saturday

Good morning. A very quiet couple days are ahead for Houston, followed by a cold front on Sunday, which should hopefully bring us some rainfall. We are beginning to run into a bit of a precipitation deficit again. While most of the area is technically not in drought, we are once again seeing it expand in Texas. Within the Houston region, we have gone from 9 percent coverage of drought back at the end of February to 35 percent drought coverage as of yesterday’s update. Since the first of the year, our area has seen anywhere from 40 to 50 percent of normal rainfall (with the exception being north of Conroe).

Rainfall since the beginning of the year has been rather paltry in most of the region, leading us back toward drought for at least the third or fourth time since last spring. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)

We’ve seen this happen about three or four other times since last May, and some kind of weather system or slow moving front has bailed us out from devolving into serious drought. We’ll see if that happens again this time.

Today & Saturday

Fairly similar weather is on tap for today and tomorrow. Low clouds and fog are the story this morning. Visibility isn’t severely restricted in most spots (except perhaps along the immediate coast), but we’ve definitely shifted into a murkier look this morning. The pattern the next couple days will be similar with low clouds and fog in the morning, some partial afternoon clearing, and a slight chance of showers. Any rain would be very, very spotty, and it would be unlikely to amount to much more than a few minutes or few hundredths of an inch.

High temperatures should generally be in the 70s to perhaps low-80s, with lows in the 60s to perhaps close to 70 degrees in spots.

Sunday

The forecast for Sunday is both straightforward and tricky, if that makes sense. The overall theme for Sunday is very simple: A cold front will push through, probably in the late morning and early afternoon from northwest to southeast across the region. With it, some showers and thunderstorms but probably not a ton of rainfall. We expect a couple tenths to a quarter-inch or so, with maybe slightly higher amounts north.

Where it gets tricky on Sunday is with the temperature forecast. We should start off quite warm, in the 60s to low-70s. We’ll likely bump into the mid or even upper-70s before the front sweeps through, dropping temperatures a good 10 to 15 degrees. Models differ a good bit on how far those temperatures will drop, with some saying low-50s by afternoon and others in the upper-50s to low-60s. Either way, it will turn a good bit cooler in the afternoon on Sunday, so if you’ll be out and about, be ready.

It will also be breezy, with wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph at times on Sunday.

Next week

Sunday’s front will make it about 30 to 50 miles offshore before stalling on Monday. It should come back at us as a warm front later Monday and on Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers for some of us. Eventually, a stronger cold front will likely sweep through on Wednesday, bringing another chance of showers and storms, and then cooler air and nicer weather for the end of the week.

When all is said and done, we should see about a quarter to half-inch of rainfall between now and next Thursday morning, with at least some risk for higher amounts along or north of I-10. Some places, especially close to the coast may only receive a couple tenths of an inch. It will be unevenly beneficial for our region.

Total rainfall through Thursday morning from the NWS shows higher amounts as you go north. (Weather Bell)

Because of fronts coming at us in so many directions, temperatures will be a bit of a roller coaster ride next week. Look for low-50s Monday morning, 60s Tuesday morning, and possibly near 70 on Wednesday morning, before 40s and 50s return for later in the week. Daytime highs will offer just a little less whiplash, with near 80 or warmer on Monday and Tuesday, 70s on Wednesday depending on the exact timing of the front, and then lower-70s or even 60s on Thursday and Friday.

I have seen some continued comments and concerns about rumors of another freeze coming to Houston. That doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Certainly, late next week doesn’t look much worse than low-40s, and even that’s pretty aggressive. We may have another dose of cooler air another week after that, but no models show any risk of a freeze from that one either. We wouldn’t worry.

 

Hints of spring for Houston today, followed by a lovely weekend

Today may offer our area the first real taste of spring, via some warm temperatures and even a few thunderstorms. That will setup what should be a delightful weekend. Before we get into that, shameless plug: I was thrilled to be a guest on the latest episode of Weather Geeks, The Weather Channel podcast. You can check that out on your favorite podcast streaming service here.

I talk about Houston weather, the freeze, our string of high impact events, Space City Weather, and more! Definitely a career-so-far highlight for me, and I am grateful to have been given another platform to talk more about how recent serious weather has impacted the Houston area. I hope you find it interesting.

Today

As far as the weather, today intrigues my meteorological sensibilities a bit. I am genuinely curious to see how things unfold. Just to be very clear: We are not expecting any serious, high impact weather. This is pure meteorological curiosity on my part. Here’s why. A vigorous but weakening disturbance in the upper atmosphere moving along or just north of the Red River will help push weak low pressure at the surface and a cold front into Southeast Texas later today.

Water vapor satellite imagery show an upper level storm in Oklahoma that will help push a cold front and weak system at the surface into Texas today, bringing some showers and a slight chance for a thunderstorm. (College of DuPage)

As this happens, we’ll see some showers break out across the region this afternoon. It’s possible that many locations see no rain at all today, but the chance will be there. Some fog may be possible, patchy this morning and perhaps more robust along the coast later today before the front wipes it out this evening. We could also see a little sunshine today too which will allow temperatures to press into the 70s across much of the area. If we see enough sun later this afternoon, we could manage mid to upper-70s for highs today.

As the cold front approaches later today or this evening, some thunderstorms could possibly break out prior to it moving through. As these types of setups go, this will be a very low-end one with minimal coverage of thunderstorms and nothing unruly, but it may be the first day of the year where we notice some towering, billowing cumulus clouds, or springtime convection. Last year, I noticed it for the first time on March 10th, so it feels like we’re right about on schedule. The seasons are beginning to change once again.

The HRRR model is forecasting at least a handful of isolated thunderstorms very late this afternoon or evening, primarily north and east of Houston. Nothing serious but perhaps some conversational convection? (Weather Bell)

The best chance for any isolated thunder will likely be north and east of Houston, across Montgomery or Liberty Counties, or perhaps into Chambers County. Regardless, the front pushes out the warmer temps and rain showers in the evening, leading to a breezy, quiet night.

Weekend

It really looks like a spectacular weekend for the entire region. Expect sunshine most of the time, periodically punctuated by a few high clouds. We’ll have low humidity, and temperatures will top off in the upper-60s to near 70 degrees after morning lows in the 40s and 50s. Just perfect for outdoor activities…except for the pollen, which will likely be elevated. Be forewarned allergy sufferers!

Next week

We should start the week off on the right foot with more sunshine and highs in the 70s. As the week goes on, expect onshore flow to drag in humidity from the Gulf. This should mean more clouds, slight shower chances, and perhaps some gray skies and fog at times. Morning lows will gradually nudge up through the 60s, and daytime highs should top off in the 70s to eventually near 80 degrees, building through the week. We may see a cold front sweep through, perhaps by the weekend with higher rain chances and some cooler air. More on that next week!