After two splendid days, rain returns to Houston this weekend

A sense of normalcy has returned to Houston this morning, as temperatures have fallen into the upper 40s across most of the region. This will be but a fairly brief respite, however, from the warmer weather of late. Also, we’ll probably see rain this weekend.

Today and Friday

In the wake of Wednesday’s cold front, pleasant weather will predominate for Houston, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees, and cooler nights. How cool? Temperatures tonight could fall into the low- to mid-40s for many inland areas, and this will bring a real chill into the air. Friday night will be warmer, with the onshore flow starting to resume, but I still expect lows to fall to around 50 degrees for most areas. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, with winds around 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Sunday

As the onshore flow resumes, rain chances will return to the metro area this weekend. The temperature forecast, at least, seems fairly clear. Both days will see highs from the upper 60s to low 70s, dependent somewhat on cloud cover, and lows probably down to around 60 degrees. The difficult part of the forecast comes in determining rainfall, which will depend upon the evolution of a low pressure system moving up into the region from south Texas on Saturday. The forecast models just don’t have a good handle on this yet.

Estimated rainfall totals for Houston for this coming weekend. (Weather Bell)

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Houston just had its warmest morning for January, February or March

February ended on fire. According to the National Weather Service, the low temperature on Tuesday morning was 73 degrees—setting a record high minimum temperature for any day in February, in any year. This beat the old record by 2 degrees, would break or tie a record for every day in the city from January 1 through April 11, and matches the normal low for June 10. In summary, Houston’s warmest February on record ended with ridiculous weather, the same way we began it.

A month of record-setting temperatures in Houston. (National Weather Service)

Today

Low temperatures this morning are about the same as Tuesday, but fortunately a cool front arrives today, returning the region to more sensible weather for this time of year. The front should move through the region by around noon, and a capping inversion should prevent all but a few scattered showers from developing as it blows through. Winds could gust up to 20 or 25 miles out of the north this afternoon and early evening as drier air moves in. While afternoon temperatures should still reach about 80 degrees, conditions will cool off fairly quickly as the Sun sinks toward the horizon.

Thursday and Friday

As we’ve been saying for awhile, the end of the work week should provide some splendid, early spring-like weather, with highs in the upper 60s and low temperatures around 50 degrees, warmer along the coast and cooler inland. The only concern I have is for winds, which will be out of the north on Thursday (perhaps gusting to 15mph) and then out of the east and then southeast on Friday, perhaps gusting a little higher.

Saturday and Sunday

I’m starting to have some confidence that at least Saturday morning should provide decent weather for outdoor activities. I expect a high temperature of about 70 degrees under cloudy skies, as moisture levels rise. The tricky question remains the timing of any rainfall, which could begin as early as Saturday afternoon, or not start until Sunday morning. In any case, I think most of the region is probably looking at picking up about 1 inch of rain this weekend. Highs on Sunday should rise into the mid-70s.

Early next week

As has been usual for the region this winter, Houston will fall into a “warm” pattern for most of the next work week, as it looks like high temperatures will be between 75 and 80 degrees, and lows in the 60s. So if you enjoy cooler weather, this Thursday and Friday are for you.

Posted at 6:55am CT on Wednesday by Eric

The winter that practically ended about seven weeks ago officially ends today

February began with 80-degree weather, and it’s going to end with 80-degree weather for southeast Texas. In between just a single, solitary day (February 16th) recorded a below normal temperature. For Houston, it’s really been like the second half of winter never happened.

Today

As mentioned, temperatures today will be quite warm, likely rising into the low- to mid-80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows tonight will probably only fall to about 70 degrees. For February—even the end of the month—this is just incredibly steamy weather.

Wednesday

The pre-dawn hours on Wednesday will remain warm, but a cold front will move through the area between sunrise and about noon. The big question is whether it rains. While there surely will be ample atmospheric moisture (thanks to the onshore flow Monday and today), and lift from the front, it seems probable that a capping inversion will limit rainfall.

There is plenty of moisture to work with (light greens) tomorrow, but a cap will probably limit widespread showers. (Weather Bell)

 

Thus while we can’t rule out showers and a few thunderstorms, I think the front will largely be a dry or briefly wet passage. Highs Wednesday will probably hit about 80 degrees before temperatures cool off (along with much drier air) during the afternoon hours. Overnight lows will fall to around 50 degrees.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by Darrell Lee’s The Gravitational Leap)

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Sponsor review: The Gravitational Leap

You may have noticed that this month a local author, Darrell Lee, sponsored Space City Weather. It’s the first time that’s happened (but not the last, check back in April). Anyway, as part of the sponsorship I agreed to read the book and post a short review. Spoiler alert: I liked it!

In his first book Lee has plunged us several centuries into the future, into a post-nuclear holocaust world, where there is a small band of civilized people beset by several tribes of nomads. While a tale about a post-apocalyptic world hardly plows new ground in the science fiction genre, this story does not feel well-worn, nor unoriginal. Quite the contrary, this is an interesting world, with an interesting story, and unwinds the misfortunes that led our heroes to their present plight in a very, very cold world. And without giving too much of the story away, let me also say that for Texas residents there are some recognizable landmarks in the second half of the book.

(The Gravitational Leap)

 

As a first effort, this is a fun read. There are a few moments where the author’s inexperience breaks through, in passages that do more “telling” than “showing,” and some awkward dialogue, but truthfully these are minor quibbles. My biggest criticism is not a bad one—the book is too short, and could have benefited from a little more character development. But it’s a good thing, I’d say, when you leave your reader wanting more!

Anyway, check out the Gravitational Leap here, if you’re interested.